Archive for July 20th, 2009

Digging deeper on Obama’s sliding performance approval ratings …

July 20, 2009

Top-line Numbers

The most recent Rasmussen Poll reports that 30% of likely voters Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance as president, and 37% Strongly Disapprove.   That puts his Presidential Approval Index — the difference between the percentage of likely voters who Strongly Approve and the percentage who Strongly Disapprove — at minus 7.  The PAI has been negative for all of July, and it has been consistently around minus 7 for the past week or so.

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Top-line Analysis

The generally reported story line: Obama is personally popular, but his policies are causing concern among rock hard GOP opponents and some independents “at the margin”.

But, not to worry – ratings slips are to be expected when a President pushes an aggressive agenda and the Presidential honeymoon period winds down.

But, I’ve been noticing that acquaintances who were strong Obama supporters seem less willing to pitch his case and defend his actions to date.  While “buyer’s remorse” overstates the case, I am seeing some doubts and head-scratching.

So, I did some digging.

I previously posted some FD-Hotline polling results that indicated Obama is slipping among males, independents, and rural voters.  Interesting, but not earth-shaking.

The “internals” from Rasmussen polling – are way more revealing.  They’re under-reported – even by Rasmussen – probably because they tarnish the Obama mystique and reek of political incorrectness.

For example:

  • Obama’s high ratings with females and young people has eroded – his PAI with females and 18-29 year olds are now both dead even – as many strongly disapprove as strongly approve.
  • While his overall approval ratings among blacks is still sky high at 93%, his strong approval has dropped 10 points from 70% to 60%
  • His strong disapproval is over 40% among males, whites, independents, 30-39 year olds, and middle class folks earning between $40,000 and $100,000.

Keep reading for the drill down …

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First Level Drill Down

Comparing Rasmussen poll results from the week of July 6-12 to the week of  June 1-7

For the total sample of likely voters: Obama’s PAI (the difference between strong approvers and strong disapprovers)  dropped by 10 points, from plus 3 to minus 7

Highlights from the “internals”

For males: Strong Disapproval increased by 7 points,  from 35% to 42%
For females: Obama’s PAI dropped by 9 points, from plus 9 to even zero

For whites: Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 36% to 41%
For blacks: Strong Approval dropped 10 points,  from 70% to 60%
For “Other”: Strong Disapproval increased 16 points,  from 27% to 43%

For Democrats: Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 62% to 50%
For Republicans: Strong Disapproval increased 7 points,  from 54% to 61%
For “Other”: Strong Disapproval increased 8 points,  from 35% to 43%

For 18-29 olds: Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 39% to 27% and Obama’s PAI  dropped by 17 points, from plus 17 to even zero
For 30-39 olds:Strong Disapproval increased by 11 points,  from 31% to 42%

For those earning between $20,000 and $40,000: Obama’s PAI dropped by 12 points, from plus 5 to minus 7
For those earning between $40,000 and $60,000: Strong Disapproval increased by 12 points,  from 35% to 47%
For those earning between $75,000 and $100,000: Strong Disapproval increased by 9 points,  from 35% to 44%

For more still more detail from the internals, keep reading.

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Rasmussen June to July Internals

Comparing poll results from the week of July 6-12 to the week of  June 1-7

For the total sample of likely voters:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 34% to 29%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 31% to 36%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from plus 3 to minus 7

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Gender

For males:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 32% to 27%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 7 points,  from 35% to 42%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 12 points, from minus 3 to minus 15

For females:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 36% to 31%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 27% to 31%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 9 points, from plus 9 to even zero

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Race

For whites:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 29% to 24%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 36% to 41%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from minus 7 to minus 17

For blacks:

  • Total Approval stayed even at 93%
  • Strong Approval dropped 10 points,  from 70% to 60%
  • Strong Disapproval stayed even at 2 to 3%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 9 points, from plus 67 to plus 58

For “Other”:

  • Total Approval dropped 8 points,  from 56% to 48%
  • Strong Approval dropped 2 points,  from 32% to 30%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 16 points,  from 27% to 43%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 18 points, from plus 5 to minus 13

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Party

For Democrats:

  • Total Approval dropped 6 points,  from 85% to 79%
  • Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 62% to 50%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 4 points,  from 9% to 13%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 16 points, from plus 53 to plus 37

For Republicans:

  • Total Approval  and Strong Approval stayed about even even at 23% and 9-10%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 7 points,  from 54% to 61%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 6 points, from minus 45 to minus 51

For “Other”:

  • Total Approval dropped 7 points,  from 49% to 42%
  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 25% to 20%
  • Strong Disapproval increased 8 points,  from 35% to 43%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 13 points, from minus 10 to minus 23

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Age

For 18-29:

  • Strong Approval dropped 12 points,  from 39% to 27%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 5 points,  from 22% to 27%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 17 points, from plus 17 to even zero

For 30-39:

  • Strong Approval dropped 5 points,  from 30% to 25%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 11 points,  from 31% to 42%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 16 points, from minus 1 to minus17

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Income

For those earning less than $20,000

  • Approval and disapproval have remained essentially even
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 4 points, but remains high at plus 17

For those earning between $20,000 and $40,000

  • Strong Approval dropped 9 points,  from 34% to 25%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 3 points,  from 29% to 32%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 12 points, from plus 5 to minus 7

For those earning between $40,000 and $60,000

  • Strong Approval dropped 9 points,  from 32% to 23%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 12 points,  from 35% to 47%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 21 points, from minus 3 to minus 24

For those earning between $75,000 and $100,000

  • Strong Approval remained about even at 31%
  • Strong Disapproval increased by 9 points,  from 35% to 44%
  • PAI (the difference) dropped by 10 points, from minus 4 to minus 13

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Posted in Obama Administration | 1 Comment »

Improve healthcare by paying doctors less … huh?

July 20, 2009

“As costs explode, Congress will try to wring out ever more “savings” by underpaying doctors and hospitals.”

Full article: WSJ, What’s Up, Docs?, July 20, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124804389935663419.html

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Ken’s Take

Cutting to the chase, the crux of ObamaCare is (1) to provide tax-payer funded health insurance to 45 million uninsureds — many of them who don’t deserve it (think non-citizens, and young workers who choose to self-insure) (2) to ration medical services, especially among older folks and (3) squeeze doctors’ earnings. 

Frankly, I think doctors deserve to make a lot of money.  Most are pretty smart, all go through rigorous (and expensive) training, all get paid a pittance in their early years as they work round-the-clock as residents and, most important to me, they are gatekeepers to quality of life for me and my loved ones.

Doctors are already being squeezed.

One doctor friend of mine gave up the fight a couple of years ago, quit his practice, and went to work for a pharma company.

Another – a doc who prided himself on providing highly personal care — is now forced to treat 1/3 more patients to maintain his income level. Dr. Welby is being forced to become Dr. McDonald’s.

Still another doc has ‘vertically integrated’.  As payment rates have dropped on her basic services, she started providing services previously done by specialists.  Think OBY-GYN docs doing ultrasounds — lots of them — on pregnant moms. That boosts their income, but pressures the radiologists — who used to do the procedures — to find fill-in business.  A vicious cycle.

Does anybody really think that’s a formula for higher quality, lower cost healthcare?  Seems penny wise, pound foolish to me.

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Posted in Health Care / Medical Insurance | Leave a Comment »

Dependence on foreign oil … oops I meant foreign bondholders.

July 20, 2009

Ken’s Take: The ballooning deficit and national debt raise two mega-worries: (1) An eventual increase in interest rates as it gets increasingly difficult to find buyers for US bonds, and (2) the increasing dependence on foreign buyers of the debt – especially China.  Neither should be taken lightly …

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Excerpted from NY Post,”The Never Ending Pork Parade”, July 4, 2009

Thanks to ongoing trade deficits and relentless borrowing, America’s financial status is deteriorating rapidly.

  • The Commerce Department reported last week that:
  • The value of foreign assets owned by Americans is $19.89 trillion,
  • The value of American assets owned by foreigners is $23.36 trillion.
  • So, we are a “net debtor” to the tune of $3.47 trillion. 
  • Foreigners, most significantly China, own nearly 50 percent of our government’s public debt.

So while the Obama administration frets that we are dangerously dependent on foreign oil (Note: Canada sends us as much oil as the Persian Gulf region, and Mexico not much less), we are increasingly threatened by dependence on foreign bondholders who could wreak havoc on the dollar and our interest rates far more easily than OPEC could cut off our oil.

Full article:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/07042009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/the_never_ending_pork_parade_177485.htm?page=0

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Posted in Financial Crisis, Obama Administration | Leave a Comment »