Archive for July 16th, 2010

OK, let’s pretend the Stimulus worked … the math (continued)

July 16, 2010

Yesterday, we pointed out that taking Obama’s numbers at face value, i.e. the Stimulus “saved or created” 3.5 million jobs … almost $250k was (or will be spent) for each job saved or created.

A couple of loyal readers replied that “only half of the Stimulus money has been spent so the cost is only about $125k per job saved or created”.

First, $125k is still a lot of money per job.

More important, all of the money will eventually be spent and the total claim for jobs saved or created is 3.5 million … so we’re back to the $250k number.

Most important, let’s merge the 2 ideas: Romer says 3 million jobs saved or created are in the books … since $425 billion has been spent (1/2 of the total Stimulus) … that means that the spending per job has been just under $150k.

But, the next $425 billion will only save or create 500,000 jobs … that works out to about $850,000 per job.

It’s called “diminishing returns” … and it illustrates – using Obama’s own numbers – why throwing more stimulus money at the problem is a bad idea.

image

Timing is everything: Steinbrenner’s biggest coup …

July 16, 2010

… was, of course, dying in 2010.

Why ?

No estate taxes.

Steinbrenner’s estate is estimated to be north of $1 billion.

By dying this year, his heirs will pay no Federal estate taxes.

If he had hung on until next, the Feds take would have been about $500 million – assuming that Obama ditches the Bush tax program

Timing is everything.

Full article:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/steinbrenner-heirs-may-save-millions-on-estate-tax/

Almost 10% of unemployment benefits are fraudulent … and Congress wants to ramp ‘em up … OUCH !

July 16, 2010

While many Americans are feeling the pain of expired unemployment benefits, some have gotten a good chunk more than they were legally eligible for.

Preliminary estimates released by the Department of Labor find that, in 2009, states paid $76.8 billion in unemployment benefits … more than $7.1 billion (over 9%) were overpayments in unemployment insurance

Fraud accounted for $1.55 billion in estimated overpayments last year, while errors by state agencies were blamed for $2.27 billion, according to the Labor Department.

Assistant Secretary for Employment and Training Jane Oates testified before Congress in May that the top cause for overpayments was people returning to work and continuing to claim benefits.

Other overpayments are often the result of the unemployed errantly claiming that they were laid off instead of fired for cause — the latter of which typically disqualifies a person for benefits.

Excerpted from ABC NEWS: Labor Dept. Estimates $7.1 Billion in Overpayments to Unemployed, July 9, 2010 
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/underemployed-overpaid-states-shell-unemployment/story?id=11118137