Couple of questions from the NYT/CBS poll caught my eye …
First, keep in mind that NYT/CBS bends left … and is known to oversample Dems.
The conventional wisdom is that folks may not like Obama’s policies, but that they like him as a person.
I’ve always thought that conclusion was overstated since there’s survey because of social forces and resulting survey bias …
Recently, Obama has been quite visible on the campaign trail … with negative attacks on Romney … sometimes repeating accusations that have been discredited by fact-checkers.
Well, guess what?
In the latest NYT?CBS poll, Obama is viewed UNFAVORABLY by 48% … only 36% view him favorably … that’s only 4 points higher than Romney.
Perhaps negative campaigning isn’t as effect as the pundits have been saying,
Tags: CBS, favorability, NY Times, Obama
The Homa Files 
July 20, 2012 at 6:51 am |
Not sure I agree. I think on a micro-level, the recent surge in negativity from the President’s campaign might look like a wash.
But the President has successfully blunted any “bounce” Governor Romney might have gotten from wrapping up the nomination among independents and soft Democrats.
Also, the evening after the 2010 midterm whipping, the Obama campaign would have signed for a 2-3 point national lead going into Labor Day. The reason the Democrats have rallied back sharply from that defeat, at least at at the top level, is a combination of low enthusiasm for Romney among swing voters (see 32% favorable above), the power of incumbents and relentless negative advertising at the GOP primary process.
No one is voting “for” President Obama except government dependencies, pride voters, social liberals and single issue abortion voters. The President’s surrogates almost openly admit to a vote “against” Governor Romney, rather than for the President, effort. Much like President Bush in 2004- gin up the base, turn off/keep home the independents.
Ergo, a year of negative advertising has been very successful; it has eliminated any enthused “independent” coalition of “for Romney”; what exactly remains? The three big wedge issues that forced swing voters on to the red line (see 2010 midterms)- social conservatism, defense, spending/taxes- Romney moves the needle positively on none. Sure, there is a bigger anti-Obama “indy” coalition out there than 2012, but the 32% approve up there shows little juice in the Romney brand outside of registered GOP.
How can you win a major party nomination, cresting on success, and be at 32%? A year of relentless negativity. The President’s re-election team looks at the number and surely smiles.