Archive for August, 2012

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The streak rolls on: BLS under-reports initial unemployment claims … again!

August 3, 2012

Now we’re up to 72 out of 73 weeks — and, at least 13 weeks in a row — that the BLS’s “headline number” has under-reported the number of initial unemployment claims … and cast the jobs situation as brighter than it really is.

Based on Thursday’s BLS report, the number for the week ending July 21 was revised upward from 353,000 to 357,000.

In itself, the 4,000 isn’t a big deal.

But, in context it is

Again, I ask: statistical bias or political bias?

If the former: fix it already, BLS.

Hint to BLS: just add 2k or .8% to your prelim forecast !

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* * * * *

Almost forgot …

Ahead of this morning’s BLS unemployment report, Gallup’s unemployment rate bumped up .2% during July and first time unemployment claims increased last week.

My bet BLS will claim we’re steady at 8.2% … and, further nick their credibility.

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Errata: last line of chart should be dated 7/28/12 … sorry.

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Trespassers will be arrested and prosecuted … why?

August 3, 2012

I went to an Orioles game last week and was struck by a grand irony.

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To provide context & contrast, remember a couple of years ago when an SEIU mob swarmed the house of a B of A executive?

Happened that Nina Easton – a Fortune reporter – lived next door, was at home to witness the events, and wrote about the incident in Fortune:

Last Sunday, on a peaceful, sun-crisp afternoon,  my front yard exploded with 500 screaming, placard-waving strangers on a mission to intimidate my neighbor, Greg Baer.

Baer is deputy general counsel for corporate law at Bank of America.

Waving signs denouncing bank “greed,” hordes of invaders poured out of 14 school buses, up Baer’s steps, and onto his front porch.

Baer’s teenage son Jack — alone in the house — locked himself in the bathroom. “When are they going to leave?” Jack pleaded when I called to check on him.

Police were summoned, but stood by idly … letting the mob rule.

Hmmm.

OK, now fast forward to my trip to Camden Yards.

A couple of times during the game the scoreboard flashed:

“Trespassing on the field is a crime.  Violators will be arrested and prosecuted.”

Tell me, why is it a major crime for some drunk jackass to run across the field and slide into one of the bases?

Practically everybody in the park belly laughs watching, nobody gets hurt.

OK, a too-long game gets extended by a couple of more minutes.

So what?

Last year at an O’s game, a wingnut ran around the field eluding a pack of cops and was about to slide into home plate when an umpire tackled him.

Citizen’s arrest, I guess.

Geez.

Now, back to my serious point.

Is running on a baseball field such an threatening act that police need to rush onto the field to corral and cuff the perp?

Apparently, yes.

So then, why don’t cops feel obligated to cuff somebody when their mob threatens a 14 year old kid?

Seems to me like something is badly out of whack.

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GM market share slips 3 points … now, that’s a turnaround to be proud of.

August 2, 2012

The President continues to tout his prowess as the venture capitalist who engineered GM’s bailout.

Hmmm.

Last week, GM canned its VP – Marketing after less than 1 year on the job.

This week, the company released July sales results.

Bottom line: the pie grew, but GM’s sales fell 6% versus last July … and its market share dropped by a whopping 3 points … down to 17.4%

Any wonder why the share price is about half of the IPO price?

 

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Source

 

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Posted in Autos - Travel, GM | 1 Comment »

Your doctor will see you … in a couple of months.

August 2, 2012

Fairly balanced piece in the NY Times last Sunday re: the impacts of ObamaCare

Punch line: In 2015 the country will have 62,900 fewer doctors than needed … that number will more than double by 2025, as the expansion of insurance coverage and the aging of baby boomers drive up demand for care.

The problem, in a nutshell …

  • There is a shortage of every kind of doctor, except for plastic surgeons and dermatologists
  • Primary care doctors make about $200,000 a year. Specialists often make twice as much.
  • ObamaCare adds about 30,000 people to insurance rolls … the majority via Medicaid
  • Fewer than half of primary care clinicians are accepting new Medicaid patients
  • Medicare will surge to 73.2 million in 2025, up 44 percent from 50.7 million this year.
  • “Older Americans require significantly more health care,”
  • And about a third of the country’s doctors are 55 or older, and nearing retirement.
  • Younger doctors are on average working fewer hours than their predecessors.
  • It typically takes a decade to train a doctor.
  • Medical schools are at capacity and Federal training subsidies have been cut.

 

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While ObamaCare mandates broader insurance coverage, it does little to fundamentally restructure the healthcare delivery … save for government administered rationing.

Part of real answer: more doctors (new and retained), more walk-in clinics (public & private), and more authority to RNs and PAs.

Note: the Times failed to mention that the CBO’s current estimate for ObamaCare’s costs has tripled since the law was passed. 

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Posted in Doctors & Physicians, Health Care / Medical Insurance, ObamaCare | Leave a Comment »

Re: Unemployment … this chart says it all

August 2, 2012

There are a lot of of confusing – and sometimes misleading – numbers thrown around to characterize the state of the employment market.

As we’ve been harping the past several weeks, the BLS has been consistently underreporting the weekly unemployment claims numbers that get headlined on the news – only to revise them up quietly the following week.

Similarly, there are lots of questions about the BLS’ seasonal adjustment factors … which sometimes cause more variance than they explain.

Finally, there’s understandable confusion about the reported unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate.  Since the latter has been going down, the former benefits – i.e. there are fewer unemployed people because some (or many) have left the work force.

The St. Louis Fed published a chart that puts the factors into perspective.

The chart is brilliant in its simplicity.

It simply plots the percentage of the able-bodied population who are employed.  The difference to 100% is the percentage of able bodies that either choose not to work or can’t find jobs.

What it shows: prior to the financial crisis, about 63% of able bodies had jobs.

The rate fell quickly to about 58.5% and has – save for some statistical noise – hasn’t budged despite the trillions of  fiscal and monetary action.

In other words, about 1 in 20 (the difference between 63% and 58.5%) able bodied folks who used to work, aren’t employed now … and the trend isn’t good.

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Don’t call me “Dogg” … call me “Lion” … I’ve been reborn!

August 1, 2012

Breaking news …

Snoop Dogg wants you to know that he’s tired of hip-hop, is Bob Marley reincarnated and is embracing reggae instead of the culture of guns he once rapped about.

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Also, he’s got a new name: Snoop Lion

Snoop says he was was “born again” during a visit to Jamaica and is ready to make music that his “kids and grandparents can listen to.”

Snoop didn’t explain why he was switching from “Dogg” to “Lion,” but it’s likely a reference to  a religious symbol popular in the Ethiopian culture.

Lion has new reggae album coming in the fall along  a coffee table book about his rebirth.

You just can’t make this stuff up.

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Gallup reports unemployment rate increasing … what’ll the BLS say on Friday?

August 1, 2012

Fully expecting that the BLS will manage this week’s jobs and unemployment rate reports, I thought I’d peek at what Gallup is saying.

Well, the Gallup trend is up sharply since mid-July … up to 8.3%

My bet: BLS will find a way to report that the unemployment rate stayed constant at 8.2% in July.

We’ll see …

 

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Apparently young adults and Latinos didn’t get the memo …

August 1, 2012

A question in the most recent McClatchy poll caught my eye …

The question: Should Congress extend the Bush tax cuts to everybody or “only to the middle class”?

I always expect this question to come out 98% to 2% in favor of hiking taxes on the “other guy”.

So, I was surprised to see the overall count at 52% to 43% in favor of extending the current tax rates for everybody.

Gets even more interesting …

Latinos are 62% to 36% in favor of extending for everybody.

Young adults 18 to 29 weighed in 69% to 29% in favor of extending to everybody.

So, two of Obama’s key constituencies seem out of line with respect to the President’s line in the sand re: jacking up taxes on the rich.

Hmmm.

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Posted in Bush tax cuts, Obama, Polls & Surveys | Leave a Comment »

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