Posts Tagged ‘Gallup’

Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 30, 2012

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

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Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

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IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

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10 qualities of successful entrepreneurs

September 19, 2012

Punch line: Not enough people understand who entrepreneurs are or how to develop them. Jim Clifton, Gallup Chairman and CEO, uncovers what propels these exceptional businesspeople.

Pensive businessman - Image by flickr user s_falkow

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Excerpted fro Gallup Business Journal, “What Drives Entrepreneurs to Win”

In his book The Coming Jobs War, Gallup Chairman and CEO Jim Clifton calls entrepreneurship the “scarcest, rarest, hardest energy and talent in the world to find.”

So how do you rise above the challenges that entrepreneurship poses? Clifton offers some sage advice.

  1. Know your personal brand. Successful entrepreneurs know themselves well and can perceive others accurately.
  2. Take on challenges. Entrepreneurs [should] stretch themselves, raise the bar, face their fears, and [be] willing to experiment.
  3. Think through possibilities and practicalities. Entrepreneurs must be creative and think beyond the boundaries of what exists.
  4. Promote the business. Successful entrepreneurs are their own best spokespeople.
  5. Focus on business outcomes. Highly successful entrepreneurs judge decisions … based on their observed or anticipated effect on profit … [and they] set goals and live by their commitment to them.
  6. Be a perpetual student of the business. Continually gaining input and acquiring the knowledge and skills required to grow the business are essential to an entrepreneur’s success.
  7. Be self-reliant. Successful entrepreneurs are prepared to do whatever must be done to see the business succeed.
  8. Be a self-starter. Successful entrepreneurs are passionate doers who push to make things happen.
  9. Multiply yourself through delegation. Entrepreneurs who are successful … are willing and able to contemplate a shift in style and control.
  10. Build relationships. The ability to build strong relationships is crucial for survival and growth. Successful entrepreneurs are adept at building relationships, have strong social awareness and can attract and maintain a constituency.

Edit by JDC

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Gallup reports unemployment rate increasing … what’ll the BLS say on Friday?

August 1, 2012

Fully expecting that the BLS will manage this week’s jobs and unemployment rate reports, I thought I’d peek at what Gallup is saying.

Well, the Gallup trend is up sharply since mid-July … up to 8.3%

My bet: BLS will find a way to report that the unemployment rate stayed constant at 8.2% in July.

We’ll see …

 

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Gallup: “National Mood a Drag on Obama’s Re-Election Prospects” … say, what?

May 23, 2012

According to Gallup :

Some six months before voters head to the polls to choose the next president of the United States,

Gallup finds several indicators of the economic and political climate holding steady at levels that could be troublesome for President Barack Obama.

According to Gallup polling in early May, Obama’s approval rating is below 50%, Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the country is barely above 20%, and the economy remains a dominant concern.

Talk about a juxtaposition of cause & effect …  perhaps, its President Obama who is responsible for the country’s lack of confidence … rather than the lack of confidence causing headwinds for the President.

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Side Note

41% of the country was  “satisfied with direction of the U.S.” when Bush was vying for re-election.

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Cookin’ the books? … 2 numbers to watch when the BLS reports tomorrow.

April 5, 2012

Loyal readers know that I’m a bit skeptical re: the employment numbers that the BLS has been spitting out in recent months.

Two reasons: (1) Unemployment rates are diverging from the Gallup daily surveys, and (2) Seasonal adjustment factors are boosting the employment numbers.

First, the Gallup relationship …

Historically, Gallup’s mid-month unemployment rate has tracked closely to the BLS end-of-month rate.

Not so in February … Gallup reported 8% … BLS reported 8.2%.

Hmmm.

Gallup’s mid-month rate for March was 8.9%.

Let’s see what the BLS says tomorrow.

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The 2nd number to watch is the the seasonal adjustment adder.

For the prior10 years, the BLS has seasonally adjusted February employment numbers upward by 1.1423%.

Last month, they upped the raw numbers by 1.1688%.

That’s a big difference when floated into the unemployment rate calculation.

The prior 10 year adjustment factor for March has been .6209 %.

If the seasonal adder is higher than that tomorrow … be suspicious.

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My bet: the unemployment rate will magically hang at 8.3% … .6% below the Gallup number.

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Unemployment: The final nums before tomorrow’s final nums …

March 8, 2012

Tomorrow’s BLS report will be very interesting.

On the plus side: ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report earlier this week. Its usually – but not always – a good leading indicator of the the BLS nums.

Form February, ADP reported a gain of 216,000 private sector jobs.

Last month (January) 2012 ADP’s final num was 173,000 jobs. In contrast, the BLS reported 257,000 seasonally adjusted private sector jobs for January.

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On the minus side:

Today, the BLS reported that the number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose for the third consecutive week

Initial jobless claims jumped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000 in the week ending March 3.

Most important, Gallup – which nailed the drop to 8.3% last month —  has been consistently reporting an unemployment rate of 9% throughout February.

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The consensus of economists is that about 200,000 jobs will be reported and that the unemployment rate will hold at  8.3%.

Ken says: seasonally unadjusted jobs will decline, seasonally adjusted jobs will increase less than 200,000 … and the unemployment rate will bump back up to 8.5%

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In advance of this week’s unemployment report … Gallup up to 9.2%

February 27, 2012

In case you missed it this weekend, Gallup’s daily tracking report put unemployment at 9.2%up from 8.3% in mid-January.

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The BLS report this Friday will be vey interesting.  Even with more book-cooking via changed methodologies, sample changes, and seasonal adjustments — it’ll be hard to put lipstick on this pig

My prediction: the BLS rate will go from 8.3% to 8.5% …. with a lot smoke re: seasonal adjustments … but  nothing would surprise me now that the bean counters have been politicized.

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Re: the unemployment rate … Gallup still hanging at 9% — up from 8.3%.

February 21, 2012

You may remember that the BLS reported a dramatic drop in the unemployment rate for January — down from 8.5% to 8.3%.

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At the time, we (and many other folks) pointed out that the apparent improvement was largely drive by people leaving the work force, by seasonal adjustments (which were more liberal than prior years), and by a revision in the way that the BLS compiles the numbers.

In other words, smelled like some book-cooking going on.

At the time, we encouraged loyal readers to start watching the Gallup daily tracking of the unemployment rate.  Historically, it has been a pretty good canary in the unemployment coal mine.

Typically, Gallup’s mid-month number is a good predictor of the BLS’s end-of-month number.

Well, the Gallup number has increased dramatically from mid-January to mid-February … from 8.3% (same as the BLS end of January number) … up to 9%, where it has bee hanging.

The number reported by the BLS for February will be very, very interesting …

Based on Gallup, the unemployment rate should surge back up.

Unless, of course, somebody cooks the books …

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According to Gallup, U.S. unemployment rate is back to up 9% … oops.

February 14, 2012

A couple of weeks ago – when Team Obama was victory lapping over the unemployment rate dropping to 8.3% – we told readers to watch the Gallup daily unemployment surveys as a harbinger of things to come.

Gallup has been saying that the employment numbers in the end of January seemed to be weakening.

Guess what?

After reaching a low of 8.2% in mid-January – consistent with gov’t reporting —  the rate has crept back up to 9%.

Hmmm.

A reverse victory lap in the offering?

 

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Source: Gallup

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Unemployment rate down to 8.3% … hmmm.

February 6, 2012

The Feds reported 243,000 new jobs in January … driving the unemployment rate down to 8.3%

Clear evidence that we’re on a roll, right?

Not so fast.

First, numerous sources have pointed out that another 1.2 million people got discouraged and stopped looking for work. They’re no longer counted as unemployed.

Second, as it does every year, the government revised its statistical methodology for the  January report.  The BLS footnotes say “As a result, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods.”

Hmmm.

Morw specifically, even the NY Times asks: Is the number real ?

How many jobs did the American economy add in January?

The Labor Department estimated on Friday that the economy gained 243,000 jobs.

The department also estimated that the economy lost 2,689,000 jobs in the month

The difference in the two numbers is in seasonal adjustment.

The actual survey showed the big loss in jobs.

The seasonal adjustments produced the reported gain of 243,000 jobs.

A reason to doubt the number is that there has been a tendency in this cycle for the seasonal factors to overstate moves, in both directions.

 If the seasonal adjustment was too large, then the gain should be smaller.

Double hmmm.

That’s why  I like to track Gallup’s unemployment estimates.  Over time, they’ve seemed reliable and — call me cynical — but, they’re less likely to be subject to political manipulation.

For openers, here’s what Gallup said prior to the government release:

The U.S. government’s January unemployment rate that it will report Friday morning will be based largely on mid-month conditions.

The mid-month reading normally provides a pretty good estimate of the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate for the month.

At mid-January, Gallup reported that its unemployment rate had declined to 8.3%, based on data collected through the 15th of the month.

OK, that squares with the Feds number.

But, importantly, Gallup also notes:

Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show deterioration since mid-January.

While the unemployment rate of 8.6% for January is up only modestly from December, this overall increase subsumes the more negative trend of the most recent weeks.

In turn, this also seems consistent with Wednesday’s ADP report showing less job growth in January than in the prior month.

English translation: Expect February’s unemployment rate (reported first week of March)  to bounce back up … unless there’s a flurry of new hiring in early February.

Here’s the data …

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Ken’s Take:

Here’s what I said before, and I stand by it !

Pundits have been saying that Obama will be ok with a high unemployment rate in 2012 as long as the trajectory is in the right direction. That is, that unemployment is coming down.

Here’s my scenario: unemployment will creep back up and Obama will be facing a high unemployment rate that is rising.

That’s not good for the O-team.

Politically, Obama might have been better off if the rate had stayed closer to 9% for a while … he may be in the awkward position of having a high unemployment rate that’s going in the wrong direction.

It’ll be interesting …

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Shocker: Over 80% of Americans dissatisfied with government

September 29, 2011

Punch line: According to Gallup a record-high 81% of Americans are dissatisfied with the way the country is being governed

As Gomer Pyle would say “surprise, surprise, surprise.”

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Ken’s Take  Carter tanked it, Reagan brought it back, Clinton held it, Bush re-tanked it,  Obama sqandered hope & change to all-time lows.

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Drilling Down

Majorities of Democrats (65%) and Republicans (92%) are dissatisfied with the nation’s governance.

69% say they have little or no confidence in the legislative branch of government, an all-time high and up from 63% in 2010.

57% have little or no confidence in the federal government to solve domestic problems

43% have little or no confidence in the government to solve international problems.

53% have little or no confidence in the men and women who seek or hold elected office.

Americans believe, on average, that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every tax dollar

49% of Americans believe the federal government has become so large and powerful that it poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens.

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Majority now thinks Obama is blame-worthy for the state of the economy…

September 28, 2011

Based on a new Gallup poll, 69% say that Bush gets at least some of the blame for the bad economy … that’s down 10 points from a couple of years ago … as memories fade.

And, for the first time, a majority of Americans (53%) thinks that President Obama has some culpability for the current condition of the economy.  Only 25% of Dems think so, but 69% of independents give Obama some blame …  apparently, blaming Bush, tsunamis, Arab Springs, etc. is running out of steam.

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