Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

* * * * *

Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

image

IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

>> Latest Posts

Tags: , ,

2 Responses to “Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?”

  1. D. Vargas Says:

    That’s the infamous Fordham “Initial Report” which was compiled in the hours following the 2008 election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an incorrect estimate of a 6.15 Obama lead. Obama, in fact, won by 7.28 percent.

    The Fordham prof later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote outcome. Eight pollsters were more accurate than Pew and Rasmussen. This subsequent report can be found at http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf

  2. Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? « The Homa Files Says:

    […] Here’s what we reported yesterday: […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s