Archive for the ‘poll’ Category

Uh-O: CNN says “underwater”

March 19, 2013

According to a poll conducted by the CNN – not exactly the Conservative News Network” …

1) President Obama’s approval rating has gone underwater – 47% approve to 50% disapprove.

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Q1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

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2) 54% disagree with the President on the issues that matter the most to them.

Q3. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with Barack Obama on the issues that matter most to you.

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Without youth vote, Obama would have lost election … oh, really?

November 14, 2012

Let’s work through this one slowly …

First, everybody knows that “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.

And,  CNBC says Economy Stinks for Many, But It’s Crushing Millennials

More specifically, CNBC reports:

  • While the continued economic slump hobbles many Americans, the downturn is crushing young people.
  • Almost half of millennials —those between 18 and 34 — think they’ll be worse off than their parents.
  • The unemployment rate for 18- to 34-year-olds for October was 10.8 percent, higher than the national unemployment rate of 7.9 percent,
  • More than half (57 percent) of young people would like to be working and earning more.
  • Among millennials, more than half (56 percent) reported annual pretax incomes below $30,000.
  • And, just half (53 percent) are working in their chosen fields.
  • Millennials voted this week with the economy on their minds: They cited unemployment (49 %) and rising prices (37 %) as the most pressing economic issues they face.
  • Voters under 30 also cited taxes and housing as important issues.

So, you might expect millennials to vote for Romney, right?

Not so fast.

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According to US News: Without Youth Vote, Obama Would Have Lost Election

  • At 19%, Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 made up a bigger share of the electorate on Tuesday than they did in past elections.
  • And, President Obama overwhelmingly won that group compared to Mitt Romney.

What?

Are Millennials stupid, or something?

Again, not so fast.

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According to CNN’s exit polls, Obama won 18-29 year old voters by 21 points … 59% to 38%.

But, there’s more to the story.

Romney won a slim majority of white 19 to 24 year olds … 51% to 44%.

But, Obama swamped Romney with young Blacks (91%) and young Latinos (74%).

So, the driver is more Obama’s strength with Blacks and Latinos than his strength with the youth vote.

Maybe, some white Millennials did vote the economy.

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And, tere’s still more to the story.

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What’s up with “Other”?

Note that 4% of the 19 to 24 year olds voted for candidates other than Romney or Obama.

My hunch is that most of those votes went to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, not Rosanne Barr.

Doing the math, 4% of the votes … of 18% of voters … equals almost .72% of the total vote.

That’s almost 1% in a 2.5% race …  a big deal, right?

Hmmm.

Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ?

October 30, 2012

Answer: According to a published recap by a poli-sci prof at Fordham University, the pre-election projections from 2 polling organizations — Rasmussen and Pew —were right on the money in 2008.

Note that Gallup was near the bottom of the list … joined by the big media organizations – CBS, Reuters, ABC, NBC, WSJ, and Newsweek – which finished dead last.

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Fordham University: Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

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IMPORTANT: See the post Update: Which pollster was most accurate in 2008 ? for Fordham’s final study … the reslts changed.

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Mixed signals from Gallup …

October 19, 2012

OK, we know I’m rooting for Mitt … so I like the “horse race” reporting that he leads Obama by 7 points and has a majority.

But … and it’s a big but … that measure doesn’t seem to sync with Gallup’s daily Presidential Approval survey … which has Obama at 50% approval.

So, 50% approve of the job he’s doing, but only 44% are going to vote for him?

Can be rationalized that some folks think Obama is doing a good job but that Mitt would do a better job … but that’s a stretch.

Gallup changed its approval methodology when they got poked by Axlerod and threatened by Holder & the DOJ … immediately after the methodology changed, Obama’s approval numbers improved.

I can’t decode whether Gallup changed the horse race survey methods, too.

Bottom line: results are very curious.

I’d be feeling more relaxed if the approval and election numbers were in sync.

 

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