Without youth vote, Obama would have lost election … oh, really?

Let’s work through this one slowly …

First, everybody knows that “It’s the Economy, Stupid”.

And,  CNBC says Economy Stinks for Many, But It’s Crushing Millennials

More specifically, CNBC reports:

  • While the continued economic slump hobbles many Americans, the downturn is crushing young people.
  • Almost half of millennials —those between 18 and 34 — think they’ll be worse off than their parents.
  • The unemployment rate for 18- to 34-year-olds for October was 10.8 percent, higher than the national unemployment rate of 7.9 percent,
  • More than half (57 percent) of young people would like to be working and earning more.
  • Among millennials, more than half (56 percent) reported annual pretax incomes below $30,000.
  • And, just half (53 percent) are working in their chosen fields.
  • Millennials voted this week with the economy on their minds: They cited unemployment (49 %) and rising prices (37 %) as the most pressing economic issues they face.
  • Voters under 30 also cited taxes and housing as important issues.

So, you might expect millennials to vote for Romney, right?

Not so fast.

= = = = =

According to US News: Without Youth Vote, Obama Would Have Lost Election

  • At 19%, Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 made up a bigger share of the electorate on Tuesday than they did in past elections.
  • And, President Obama overwhelmingly won that group compared to Mitt Romney.

What?

Are Millennials stupid, or something?

Again, not so fast.

= = = = =

According to CNN’s exit polls, Obama won 18-29 year old voters by 21 points … 59% to 38%.

But, there’s more to the story.

Romney won a slim majority of white 19 to 24 year olds … 51% to 44%.

But, Obama swamped Romney with young Blacks (91%) and young Latinos (74%).

So, the driver is more Obama’s strength with Blacks and Latinos than his strength with the youth vote.

Maybe, some white Millennials did vote the economy.

image

And, tere’s still more to the story.

= = = = =

What’s up with “Other”?

Note that 4% of the 19 to 24 year olds voted for candidates other than Romney or Obama.

My hunch is that most of those votes went to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, not Rosanne Barr.

Doing the math, 4% of the votes … of 18% of voters … equals almost .72% of the total vote.

That’s almost 1% in a 2.5% race …  a big deal, right?

Hmmm.

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