Unemployment: The final nums before tomorrow’s final nums …

Tomorrow’s BLS report will be very interesting.

On the plus side: ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report earlier this week. Its usually – but not always – a good leading indicator of the the BLS nums.

Form February, ADP reported a gain of 216,000 private sector jobs.

Last month (January) 2012 ADP’s final num was 173,000 jobs. In contrast, the BLS reported 257,000 seasonally adjusted private sector jobs for January.


On the minus side:

Today, the BLS reported that the number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose for the third consecutive week

Initial jobless claims jumped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000 in the week ending March 3.

Most important, Gallup – which nailed the drop to 8.3% last month —  has been consistently reporting an unemployment rate of 9% throughout February.


The consensus of economists is that about 200,000 jobs will be reported and that the unemployment rate will hold at  8.3%.

Ken says: seasonally unadjusted jobs will decline, seasonally adjusted jobs will increase less than 200,000 … and the unemployment rate will bump back up to 8.5%

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