I was struck by a Volt of lightning …

What are the odds?

I actually (not virtually, actually) passed a Chevy Volt on the road

Note that “I passed” not “I was passed by”


Again I ask, what are the odds?

Well, according to the Detroit News, there have been about 16,000 Volts sold from its birth to date.

Note: about 2,000 have been bought by the gov’t and GE – pandering to the Feds

According to the Dept. of Transportation, There are about 250 million registered vehicles in the U.S.

So, the statistical likelihood of the next car I pass being a Volt is about .0064% … or, less than 1 in 15,000, given the geographic distribution of Volts. 

According to the NOAA, the odds of being struck by lighting in your lifetime are 1 in 10,000.


* * * * *

Side Note

Reuters reports that nearly two years after the introduction of Volt, GM is still losing as much as $49,000 on each one it builds

It currently costs GM “at least” $75,000 to build the Volt,

According to experts, GM’s basic problem is that “the Volt is over-engineered and over-priced,”

Weak sales are forcing GM to idle the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant that makes the Chevrolet Volt for four weeks starting September 17

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4 Responses to “I was struck by a Volt of lightning …”

  1. Chris Says:

    But GM is alive…

  2. Deepak Gupta Says:

    Prof Homa,

    I think we need to get you to California to witness explosion of electric cars. In silicon valley where infrastructure is way ahead for electric cars than in rest of the country, finding a parking space for electric charging station is getting very difficult ( parking lots have solar powered charging stations & most of the silicon valley companies and school provide free charging in these).

    Though I agree with your observation, we have more Nissan Leaf than Chevy Volt ( almost 8 :1 ratio)

    Electric cars are in there infancy and throwing the baby with bath tub water doesn’t make any sense. Electric cars have yet to cross the chasm and I am confident they will.. will Chevy Volt be the flag-bearer is yet to be decided!!

  3. John Carpenter Says:

    Two thoughts.
    – Progressive, advanced technology cars have never been popular right out of the gate. if that were the case the US auto industry would have been submerged by Europe a long time ago.
    – The $49K figure is aomething of a statistical lie. It includes all the research and development costs that are considered over the lifetime of the car. A new car thus appears a lot more expensive than one that has been around for several decades.

  4. Scott Says:

    Now this is a great post. I love the actual “struck by lightening” stats. This is the type of analysis I expect out of Homa Files.

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