Archive for September 28th, 2012

HITS: Effective problem-solving … the five key skills.

September 28, 2012

HITS: HomaFiles’ Ideas To Share

Earlier this week, I had the opportunity to kick-off the MSB Consulting Club’s pioneering extracurricular series on problem-solving.

My overall message was that there are 5 key problem-solving skills that consulting firms are looking for …

image

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Here are some of  the Homa Quotes that set-up each of the skills …

(1) Identify core issues quickly

  • “Managers faced with a complex problem typically end up solving the wrong problem.”
  • “The number of core business problems is not infinite … though variants abound.”
  • “Answer the question that was asked, not the question that you want to answer.”
  • “Some people go for the the jugular, others go for the capillaries.”

(2) Generate testable hypotheses

  • “For analytical efficiency, it’s always best to try to validate (or refute) a hypothesis.”

(3) Gather and analyze facts efficiently

  • “There are two types of people in the world: simplifiers and complicators”
  • “Do analyses … not just calculations”

(4) Craft creative, practical solutions 

  • “More people seem able to identify problems than to solve them.”
  • “Better an imperfect solution that can be implemented than a perfect solution that can’t.”

(5) Syndicate support and mobilize

  • “Getting the answer is the easy part. The hard part is convincing people to do it.”
  • “In baseball, pitching is 80% of the game … the percentage is higher in business.”

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In subsequent posts, we’ll dig a little deeper into each of the 5 essential skills.

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Posted in HITS, Homa Quotes, Problem solving | 1 Comment »

The last time that I talk about BLS reporting bias …

September 28, 2012

… certainly won’t be today

Unbelievable, they did it again this week.

I promise that I’ll stop writing about BLS reporting bias when the streak ends, but …

Now we’re up to 80 out of 81 weeks — and, at least 21 election season weeks in a row — that the BLS’s “headline number” has under-reported the number of initial unemployment claims … and cast the jobs situation as brighter than it really is.

Based on Thursday’s BLS report, the number for the week ending Sept. 22 was revised upward from 382,000 to 385,000.

In itself, the 2,000 isn’t a big deal.

But, in context it is

Again, I ask: statistical bias or political bias?

I’m now starting to conclude the latter.

The BLS has plenty of statisticians on payroll … and this is an elementary stats problem

* * * * * *

Let’s try a new way of reporting … here’s a picture.

Note that the preliminary estimate (the blue line) is ALWAYS low … by a couple of thousand.

Hint to BLS: just add 2k or 3k … or .8% to your prelim forecast !

image

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Here are the nums … but the picture says it all.

image 

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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Statistical Bias, Unemployment | 1 Comment »

Absolut takes customization to the extreme

September 28, 2012

Punch line: Absolut Vodka recently re-engineered a production plant in order to produce 4 million bottles – all of which are completely unique with no two bottles having the same design.

In a world where consumers are demanding more and more customization, where should companies draw the line?

* * * * *

Excerpted from PSFK’s, “Absolute Creates 4 Million Unique Vodka Bottles.”

Absolut-Unique

Absolut Vodka recently launched ‘Absolut Unique,’ a project in which the vodka makers will release 4 million limited-edition, unique bottles.

The project required a company’s production plant to be completely re-engineered; the ‘carefully orchestrated randomness’ to the bottle design involves using complex pattern programming alongside splash guns and color-generating machines to ensure that no two bottles come out the same.

The vodka bottles will be individually numbered and will be distributed globally in 80 markets.

“Absolut Unique feels a bit mad scientist, a bit street art. When the bottles first appeared on the conveyer belt, we cheered. By that point the production line looked more like an artist’s studio than a bottle factory.”

Take a look at this video for a behind-the-scenes look at the process.

Absolut Unique–Behind the Scenes

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Posted in Beer & Liquor, Mktg - Product & Innovation, Mktg - Promotion | 1 Comment »