The narrative in the mainstream media the past couple of weeks is that the Obama machine is building an enormous lead over Romney in early voting.
Well, Gallup just released a poll on early voters that seems to debunk the notion.
Here are the key findings …
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Only 15% of registered voters have already voted
… another 18% said they plan to vote early
… and 2/3s said they’ll vote on election day.
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Early voting in the battleground Midwest (13%) is slightly below the national average (15%)
… the uncontested Obama-West leads the nation with 1/2 voting early.
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More Republicans than Democrats have voted early
…. Independents are most waiting for election day.
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Of those who have voted early, Romney edges Obama 52 to 46.
Tags: early voting
The Homa Files 
October 30, 2012 at 5:44 pm |
KH –
This 269/269 split is becoming more and more of a possibility. Not saying a high probability option…just more and more of an option.
To do that:
1) Romney has to win FL & NC. (fine they’re leaning that way)
2) Mitt also take AZ, while Barack takes NM. (again, leaning that way)
3) Obama wins OH & MI – which as you said in a previous post is relatively likely. Know you’ve since rescinded on OH, but for sake of this argument, lets just go with it.
4) Wisconsin goes to Obama
5) VA goes to Mitt
6) CO, IA, and NV also go to Mitt. (We’ll come back to these three.)
Essentially:
Mitt HAS to win CO, IA, NV, VA and FL just to push a 269 tie.
Assuming OH & Wisc goes blue.
So to win:
Romney has to hit those 5 states AND steal one other state.
Obama has to take just two of those states to win -> Wisc + one other.
Ohio certainly changes the landscape of what I’m writing here.
Contrary to your latest post on OH, I still think your earlier post of OH going blue due to the auto bailout is how Ohio is going to fall.
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BUUUT if Ohio goes Red: (Again, assuming FL is red) states in play are:
VA, Wisc, Col, IA, and Vegas-Baby!
44 unallocated. BO: 241, MR: 253.
To become the Leader of the Free World with OH and FL red:
MR has to win: 3 out of those 5, ORRRR VA + Wisconsin.
BO has to win: VA + Wisc + one other, ORRRR 4 of those 5.
Punchlines:
Game over of FL is blue.
OH def changes the landscape.
If OH & Wisc go Obama, CO, IA, NV, and VA are a must win for just a shot (269 split here)
If OH & Wisc go Romney, MR will have 263, and will need 7 votes out of NV-6, CO-9, IA-6, and VA-13.
The no-kidding moment:
Things are alot safer for Romney with OH in Red.
VA(13) and WISC(10) are must-must-must wins.
So with VA and Wisconsin going Red, does Mitt plan to go for OH ORRR concede ohio and go for 2/3 between IA, NV, and CO? My thinking: Concede OH. Its uphill. Focus on VA and Wisc just to make this is a close one. Then focus on IA and NV. Concede Colorado.
Always interested in hearing your thoughts…