Romney 49%, Obama 48% in Gallup’s Final Election Survey
Also: Early voting so far breaks 49% for Obama and 48% for Romney
Archive for November 5th, 2012
Final Gallup: Romney by a point, 49-48
November 5, 2012OK, here’s my official prediction … and my rationale.
November 5, 2012Romney … wins popular vote, for sure
… wins an electoral college squeaker
… Wisconsin seals the win; upset in Pennsylvania ; Ohio won’t matter.
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More specifically, I see the probabilities:
- 15% Romney wins electoral college in a landslide & wins popular vote
- 40% Romney wins electoral college in a squeaker & wins popular vote
- 25% Obama wins electoral college in a squeaker, but loses popular vote
- 20% Obama wins electoral college in a squeaker & wins popular vote
- 0% Obama wins electoral college in a landslide & wins popular vote
So, to summarize:
- 55% chance that Romney wins electoral college
- 80% chance that Romney wins popular vote
- 45% chance that Obama wind electoral college
- 20% chance that Obama wins popular vote
Best guess: Romney wins popular vote 51.5% to 48.5% …. and wins about 285 electoral votes.
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Critical Factors
- The 50% threshold … Romney may be right that 47% won’t vote for him under any circumstances … but, there have been a gazillion polls and, in very few polls, has Obama hit the magic 50%+1 … I buy the conventional wisdom that an incumbent rarely exceeds the last poll ratings … undecideds will break 3 to 1 for Romney.
- Independents … Romney’s edge seems solid at about 10 points … and, there seem to be a lot of independents out there … may be the only “clean” polling data
- Turnout … the thrill is gone … at worst, turnout will be Dems +4% … I expect GOP to come close to equaling Dem turnout in key swing states
- Intensity … surveys say that the GOP has a 10 point lead in enthusiasm & intensity … if true, that’s worth 2% to 3% in the vote.
- Religious groups … Evangelicals have lined up behind Romney; a strong minority of Catholics will still support Obama – but that will be down from the 54% that he got in ‘08; folks are overlooking the Mormon factor – they vote GOP and will bloc vote this election; and, they are industrious, trained missionaries and know how to go door-to-door
- Obama defections … still haven’t met anybody who voted McCain and now voting for Obama … Wash Post says 16% are going the other direction … hat’s a big swing.
- Hispanics … Obama will win them big, but maybe not big enough … as the Univision guy said: “You didn’t keep your promise.” … that might shave some points and keep some Hispanics home.
- Military … Colin Powell & Wesley Clark are Obama supporters, but over 300 retired generals & admirals support Romney … I expect military-related people to overwhelmingly vote for Romney … impacts Virginia (ships) and Ohio (tanks).
- Tea Party … has been flying under the radar … almost nothing written about them … in polls, 20 to 25% of folks say they support the Tea Party …. I expect they’ll be a force on election day … ditto for the NRA and Chamber of Commerce
- The economy, Benghazi, ObamaCare … all have to be taking a toll on Obama … question is how big a toll?
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Soft Stuff
- Hurricane Sandy sucked much of the air out of the stretch run … but, positives seem to be dissipating for Obama … good that Christie give Romney a shout out Sunday night
- Rasmussen … I’m intrigued that Rasmussen – an automated phone survey system – always scores Obama a couple of points lower than the personal interview surveys … hmmm … wonder why?
- I got 6 GOTV calls on Friday and 5 on Saturday … from the NRP, Romney campaign, Allen campaign, Americans for Prosperity, Christian coalition, Catholic Rights Coalition, Gov. McDonnell, Pat Boone … Dem’s GOTV can’t be better than that
- Clinton drew under 2,000 at an Ohio rally … Obama drew only 4,000 in Mentor, Ohio … Romney drew over 30,000 in Cincinnati, more in Philly, event moved to VA Patriot Center today because of crowd size … I’ve seen cherry-picked interviews with folks who say they came to see Springsteen, not Obama … for sure, nobody’s coming to Mitt rallies just to see Meat Loaf
- On the stump: Romney is looking Presidential (tie & positive message) … Obama is open-collared, whining, attacking, looking tired … may just be me, but I see debate #1 being replayed in the closing arguments.
- I know I’m biased, but Obama’s closing argument isn’t very compelling: “Yeah, things are bad, but would have been even worse.” … Benghazi neutralized the bin Laden kill … auto bailout is a strong wedge, but largely a non-issue except for NW Ohio and unions
- “Vote for revenge” handed Romney a final days’ gift … on par with 47%, with worse timing.
- At the moment of truth, I think many people at the margin will gamble with Romney rather than signing up for another 4 years of malaise.
- But, I don’t underestimate the “power of free” … the nation may have reached the tipping point … it’s Obama’s ace in the hole
- Regardless of the outcome, it’s going to get ugly … neither side will be gracious in defeat.
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Gut Check
I don’t give investment advice, but …
I think that – in the next 6 months — the stock market will go up 20% if Romney is elected and down 30% (sooner rather than later) if Obama is elected.
From the above, I think the probabilities of winning are 55% for Romney to 45% for Obama.
So, expected values are:
- Romney = 55% x 20% = 11% upside
- Obama = 45% x 30% = (13.5%) downside.
- Net expected value = (2.5%) loss
Bottom line: I sold mucho stocks into the rally a couple of weeks ago.
I figure that if Mitt wins I can buy back in and just miss part of the upside.
If Obama wins, I didn’t want to be caught holding stocks.
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OK, I’m on the record!
Let’s see what happens …
CNN Final: Tied, but Mitt leads with Independents by 22.
November 5, 2012The CNN headline is “Deadlocked at 49%”
The polls’ internals tell a different story.
To get the tie, CNN uses a turnout mix that’s Dems +11% … 3 points higher than 2008.
Nobody is predicting that.
Even at Dems +11 Romney ties … thanks to a 59% to 37% lead with Independents.
Bottom line: Based on the CNN internals, if turnout is the same mix as 2008 (Dems +8%), Romney wins by 2.5%
Are all likely voters likely to vote?
November 5, 2012Prediction: this will be a year when polls take a beating.
In the stretch run, all the polls shift to “likely voters”.
Each poll has a different method for categorizing a respondent as a likely voter
The two prevalent metrics are (1) did they vote in 2008, and (2) do they say they’re going to vote
I think that both measures may be suspect this year.
First, it’s commonly reported that many of Obama’s 2008 voters will stay home this year. Think, college students.
Second, self-reporting typically overstates likelihood to vote. Its a common survey bias – folks don’t want to admit that they’re going to skip their civic duty.
Third, this is an election that will be determined by turnout.
Dems have an info systems advantage and have a strong ground game – largely driven by unions and paid organizations.
GOP has an old school GOTV system – driven by volunteers and church groups … and, the GOP seems to have a significant enthusiasm advantage.
We’ll see what prevails on Tuesday … new school data-driven micro-targeting and internet social networking or old school grind-it-out person-to-person mobilization.
Whichever prevails, it’ll be a classic case study.
Lightning strike: “Are you willing to take a 5-minute survey?”
November 5, 2012That’s the question I was asked yesterday.
When I said OK, the surveyor said “Really? Thank you so much.”
Got me thinking about why the polls have been bouncing around so much and why the many polls often seem contradictory.
Maybe the answer is that maybe, just maybe, the polls aren’t as representative as they’d like to believe.
Turns out that Pew did a study of survey responsiveness.
In the old days, about 1 in 3 people would do surveys.
At the time, that was considered an alarmingly low rate.
These days, the response rate is under 10%.
That means that it’s harder and most costly for survey firms to build their samples.
And, it raises questions about respondents … are they, in fact, representative of the world?
For the record, Pew says that Dems and Republicans have equal propensity to respond to surveys.
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Do you own a German Shepard ?
Highlight of the interview was when our dog Captain started barking in the background.
The interviewer asked if I owned a German Shepard.
I asked “Is that one of your classification variables? Do you find that GS owners are more or less likely to vote for Obama?”
She didn’t think it was funny.
Some bar stool economics
November 5, 2012A variant of an old tale that’s making the email rounds…
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for a beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
- The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
- The fifth would pay $1.00.
- The sixth would pay $3.00.
- The seventh would pay $7.00.
- The eighth would pay $12.00.
- The ninth would pay $18.00.
- The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.00.
So that’s what they decided to do.
The men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
“Since you are all such good customers,” he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.00.”
Drinks for the ten men now cost just $80.00!
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men – the paying customers?
How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would pay their “fair share”?
They calculated that $20.00 divided by six is $3.33.
But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being PAID to drink beer.
That didn’t seem right.
The bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same percentage.
Under the bar owners plan:
- The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
- The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings).
- The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28% savings).
- The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
- The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
- The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before!
And the first four continued to drink for free.
But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
“I only got a dollar back out of the $20 savings,” declared the sixth man.
He pointed to the tenth man, “but he got $10!”
“Yeah, that’s right,” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get $10 back when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!”
“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison. “We didn’t get anything at all. This system exploits the poor!”
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him.
But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important.
They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works.
The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction.
Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore.
In fact, they might start drinking overseas, somewhere the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
For those who understand, no explanation is needed.
For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.
David R. Kamerschen, PH. D.
Professor of Economics, University of Georgia
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BTW: Atlas Shrugged Part 2 opens in theaters October 12th
www.atlasshruggedmovie.com
Media leans left, leans right …
November 5, 2012Interesting tidbit from Pew …
OK, Fox leans right … 46% of its Obama coverage is negative …
… but, 71% of MSNBC’s coverage of Romney is negative.
Pew says that “These skews made MSNBC & Fox unusual among channels or outlets that identified themselves as news organizations.”
The Homa Files 