Nums: Unemployment rate on the rise again?

Last month, the BLS reported a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.7%.

Most economists and other pundits are predicting that the March  UE rate – which will be reported tomorrow – will remain at that level.

But, yesterday’s ADP employment numbers were almost 20% below the consensus estimates … 185k vs. 225k.

Today, the BLS reported: “In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 354,250, an increase of 11,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 343,000.”

Here’s another contra indicator … the Gallup Daily Tracking of Employment.

When the daily numbers for the past 3 months are averaged, there’s a big spike upward from February to March.

Gallup is again pegging the unemployment rate over 8%.

Bottom line: If the consensus 7.7% is the over-under …. I’m betting the over, for sure.


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