Nums: Obama’s bad day … and, about the Tea Party

Holy smokes.

First, a dude from Hangover asks him: “What’s it like to be the last black President?”

Then, some dullard named Jolly rides the anti-ObamaCare train to victory in a Florida Congressional election.

And, finally, more bad polling from WSJ / NBC  (which I assume offset one another re: political bias)

The top line: Approval slides to 41% … an all-time low.



Here are some nuggets that I found interesting in the polls details ..


The recent slide has put Obama “under water” by 13 points …  41% approve less 54% disapprove.

Look back to April 2009 … then, Obama was above water +31 …  that’s a huge number.

A bigger number is the swing from then to now …  a 44 point swing … from +31 to minus 13.




OK, that’s his job approval … what about his personal popularity … you know, the “like him but not his policies” thing.

With polling results, I always look at the folks who feel strongly – one way or another – and largely dismiss the rest as noise.

Specifically, I look at the “very positive” and “very negative” numbers below.

Again, Obama is underwater …  by 9 points … 21% very positive to 30% strongly negative.

Back in 2009, he scored a plus 37 …. so the swing has been 46 points.




Shifting gears, I thought the Tea Party numbers were interesting.

Specifically, I was surprised that almost 1 in 4 people polled self-identify as Tea Party supporters … a higher number than I expected .. and certainly not “just a small sliver of radicals”.




To put the 24% Tea Party number in context, note that only 23%  self-report as liberal … and only 9% as very liberal, i.e. the polar opposites’ of Tea Party supporters.




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