The Homa Files

Weekend MSM headlines focused on Trump’s campaign staff shake-up, not on his favorably reviewed speeches or his trip to Louisiana.

So, I wasn’t expecting any movement in the polls.

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

On Sunday, the USC-LA Times poll reported Trump in the lead.

No less than Dem-favorite pollster Nate Silver sped over to CNN to disparage the poll’s methodology.

Of course, that raised my curiosity.

Bottom line: yep, Donald over Hillary by 2 points.

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Here’s what I find more interesting than the single day’s numbers ….

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First, note that the USC poll seems to quickly catch the post-convention bounces for both Donald & Hillary …. and captured Trump’s slide when he went off-track on side issues.

But, look at what’s happened over the past 10 days or so.

It’s hard to miss the trend in the numbers: Hillary sliding, Donald gaining.

Hmmm.

OK, since Silver pooh-poohs the USC poll, let’s look at the broadly respected RealClearPolitics poll-of-polls.

The levels are different –- Clinton higher, Trump lower – and Hillary still has a comfortable 5.3 point lead.

Technical note: The current RCP average includes some polls of registered voters and some of likely voters … Trump does better among likely voters … and about half of the polls are more than a week old.

But, look at the trends: Trump upward, Hillary downward … just like in the USC poll.

Hmmm.

So, is the USC poll an outlying piece of garbage (Silver’s view) … or is it a fast-detecting canary in the coal mine?

It’ll be interesting to see how this week plays out.

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2016 at 6:59 am and is filed under 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.