ObamaCare has bent the cost curve …

Unfortunately, it has bent it up, not down.


Hillary’s lucky that the MSM is burying ObamaCare coverage, so she can continue to tout it as a resounding success.

Remember how ObamaCare was going to save each family $2,500?

Well, turns out to be just the opposite.

According to Federal Reserve data, once the full program kicked in, real personal healthcare expenditures — the “net total” of insurance premiums, deductibles and other out-of pocket spending, adjusted for inflation — has turned up, not down.


Her are some details …


There are 3 Americas (not 2) … thanks to ObamaCare 

Article in yesterdays WSJ quoted David Cutler, a Harvard health-care economist:

Obamacare may be “a story of three Americas.”

One group, the rich, can afford health care easily.

The poor can access public assistance.

But for lower middle- to middle-income Americans, “the income struggles and the health-care struggles together are a really potent issue.”

No kidding, Dr. Cutler …

HomaFiles was all over this one back in June:

Remember how healthcare costs were going to drop by $2,500 for every family?

We concluded that in 2016, employees will pay $11,000 out-of-pocket … up $2,500 since 2012.

“Employees” … you know the working class … the middle class.

Here’s our original post …. worth re-reading …. glad others are catching up to it.


Milliman – a well-regarded actuarial consulting” firm – has published an annual recap of healthcare spending since 2001.

The Milliman Medical Index tracks the total costs of providing health care to an average family of four covered by an employer-sponsored “preferred provider plan” … that’s about 155 million employees and their dependents.

The total includes the health insurance premiums paid by both the employer and the employee, as well as the actual expenditures for health care paid by the insurance plan and out of pocket by the insured family.

The big news: In 2016, the average healthcare costs for a family of 4 surpassed $25,000 for the first time … the $25,826 is triple the cost to provide health care for the same family in 2001 … and up about $5,000 since 2012.



The bad(est) news is the increased proportion of the healthcare costs being shouldered by individual employees …


Milliman reports that employers now pay 57% of the total health costs …down from 61% in 2001.

The average family of 4 now pays over $11,000 out-of-pocket each year … $6,717 in insurance premiums and $4,316 in deductibles, co-pays and uncovered expenses.



The “combined employee cost” – payroll deductions plus cash outlays – is up more than $2,500 since 2012.



Told you so

None of this is new news for loyal readers …

About a year ago, we posted the original: Remember how your healthcare costs were going to go down by $2,500 per family?

The punch line then:

Putting just two pieces together — the increased employee-paid part of premiums and the increased deductibles — means that an average family covered by an employer plan is now paying about $2,500 MORE out-of-pocket for healthcare than they did pre-ObamaCare … a $5,000 difference versus the promise of a $2,500 cut.




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4 Responses to “ObamaCare has bent the cost curve …”

  1. TTK Says:

    Years of pent up demand from people with pre-existing conditions certainly explains how total expenditures can rise while the cost of individual procedures falls. Do your students get extra credit for pointing out how poorly you handle data on this blog??

  2. TTK Says:

  3. SJ Says:

    Prof. Homa is talking about the out-of-pocket costs for the individual employee. A theoretical index of the cost of “individual procedures” maybe be a desirable tool for a healthcare researcher, but does not translate well to the real world. And I am not getting into the details of how that index is calculate or what assumptions they make.

    The bottom line is that mandating inclusion of any pre-existing conditions in the health insurance coverage, creates an unmanageable burden and disproportionately affects those who had health insurance before this bureaucratic atrocity was perpetrated.

  4. TTK Says:

    He is talking about “average” costs which do not translate well in the real world.

    You are talking about short term burdens, but short term thinking won’t solve a big problem like this.

    Either way, that train left the station a long time ago. Republicans made a horrible political calculation and attacked ACA rather than helping to fix it. When they are swept out if congress without adding republican features/fixes we will all be a little worse off for it. All because they were angry at Obama. Time for everybody in the GOP to grow up or the party is finished.

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