The numbers just don’t square with the narrative.
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OK, I understand the simple explanation:
Clinton can make history as the first woman President.
Trump is a crude billionaire playboy.
Women are sensible and sensitive.
Men are … well they’re men.
So, it makes sense that Trump leads by 11 points among men … and Clinton leads by 13 points among women.
FoxNews Poll Nov. 4
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But, digging a little deeper into the numbers, things get a bit confusing…
Very small changes in the Dem / GOP mix make a YUGE difference.
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A recent WaPo poll had Clinton over Trump by 2 points.
Naturally, voter preference varied by self-proclaimed party affiliation:
Clinton got 86% of of the Dem vote; Trump got 88% of the GOP vote.
Independents went 47% to Trump and 40% to Clinton.
WaPo weighted their sample 37% Dems, 30% GOP and 29% Independents.
In concept that weighting should represent WaPo’s best guess as to the mix of voters on election day.
Some pundits argue that WaPo’s aggregate tally over-weights towards Dems.
Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. We’ll know in a couple of days.
For today, let’s just play around with the numbers to demonstrate how critical the turnout assumptions are …
The Homa Files 