Archive for November 6th, 2016

Sunday polls: Pick your favorite …

November 6, 2016

There’s a poll for everybody today … pick one that confirms your biases.

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WaPo: Clinton +4 

Turnout: Dems +7 (Dems 37%, GOP 30%, Independents 29%)

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IBD: Trump +1 

Most accurate in 2012

Turnout: +3 (Dems 37%, GOP 34%, Independents 29%)

Turnout assumption differences fully account for differences in IBD and WaPo

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LA Times: Trump +6

Statistically significant: outside the margin of error

4th most accurate in 2012

No turnout assumptions reported

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Nate Silver: Clinton +3

Clinton 2 to 1 favorite to win.

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Poll watching: A tale of 2 polls …

November 6, 2016

Here are the numbers to keep your eye on …

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In yesterday’s post, we highlighted how sensitive “headline” poll results are to the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters.

Let’s add another piece to the puzzle: there are 2 sets of data that have to be closely watched when trying to make sense of the polls:

(1) the assumed party-affiliation mix of voters, and

(2) the survey-determined voter preferences by party affiliation.

I know that’s common sense … what I didn’t realize is how much those numbers vary from poll-to-poll.

To illustrate the point, let’s look at 2 polls: FoxNews (presumed to lean right) and Washington Post – ABC (presumed to lean left).

The most recent Fox poll had the race as essentially a dead heat … slight Clinton lead.

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A recent WaPo poll had Clinton up by a couple of points.

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OK,let’s play around a bit with the numbers …

(more…)

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