The Homa Files

There’s a poll for everybody today … pick one that confirms your biases.

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WaPo: Clinton +4 

Turnout: Dems +7 (Dems 37%, GOP 30%, Independents 29%)

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IBD: Trump +1 

Most accurate in 2012

Turnout: +3 (Dems 37%, GOP 34%, Independents 29%)

Turnout assumption differences fully account for differences in IBD and WaPo

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LA Times: Trump +6

Statistically significant: outside the margin of error

4th most accurate in 2012

No turnout assumptions reported

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Nate Silver: Clinton +3

Clinton 2 to 1 favorite to win.

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This entry was posted on November 6, 2016 at 8:30 am and is filed under 2016 Presidential Election, Polls & Surveys. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.