“The memo”: 3 scenarios

As I write this, the memo hasn’t been released yet …
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Reporter Kim Strassel  had a must read piece in today’s WSJ: Memo Reading for Nonpartisans.

After reading it, I conclude that there are 3 likely scenarios to emerge.

First, let’s pound some stakes in the ground:

it’s virtually certain that the memo will reveal that the “Steele Dossier” – which everybody seems to agree (or concede)  was funded by Clinton’s campaign (and-or the DNC) – was submitted to the FISA Court to obtain a warrant to wire-tap Trump associate Carter Page.

Strassel says to Ignore any arguments that the dossier was not a “basis” for the warrant or only used “in part.”

Why?

“If the FBI had to use it in its application, it means it didn’t have enough other evidence to justify surveillance.”

Further, Comey testified to the Senate, under oath that parts of the dossier were “unverified”.

The key word in the prior sentence is “parts”.

OK, on to the scenarios.

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Scenario #1: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

(1) failed to explicitly inform the court that it was funded by Clinton’s campaign and

(2) failed to explicitly inform the court which parts of dossier had been verified and which parts had not been verified.

If this is the case, the DOJ / FBI violated the FISA laws by providing the court with misleading (through omission) evidence.

That’s pretty bad.

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Scenario #2: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

(1) explicitly informed the court that it was funded by Clinton’s campaign and

(2) explicitly informed the court which parts of dossier had been verified and which parts had not been verified.

If this is the case, assuming that the verified parts were relevant to the application, then DOJ / FBI provided legit evidence and the FISA court ruled on the application based on its merits.

That gets the DOJ /FBI off the hook, but shines a light on the FISA Court and the FISA process.

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Scenario #3: The DOJ / FBI applied for the warrant using the dossier and …

The DOJ / FBI refuse to answer whether they explicitly advised the FISA Court of the Clinton-funding or whether they explicitly informed the court that relevant parts of the dossier were unverified.

The basis for the refusal to answer would likely be that the FISA proceedings are “sealed” … or that the information is classified.

This scenario simply keeps the issue alive at an even higher decibel level.

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My take:

If Scenario #2 plays out … the GOP case is toast.

I personally think that Scenario #1 represents “truth”, but ….

I’m betting that Scenario #3 will be operative.

We should know by the end of the day.

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#HomaFiles

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