Is Trump on the midterm ballot?

Of course, he is …. presidents always are.

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Interesting analysis by Pew which asked people:

Will your vote (in the midterms) be a vote FOR the president, AGAINST the president, or isn’t the president not much of a factor?

Here’s what they found:

image

Let’s drill down on the numbers…

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The question was asked in the run-up to this and the prior 3 midterm elections.

Across his 2 midterm elections, Obama averaged 23.5% of registered voters who said their midterm votes were primarily a vote FOR him.

Trump’s 2018 number: 23%

Call it a push.

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Across his 2 midterm elections, Obama averaged 31% of registered voters who said their midterm votes were primarily a vote AGAINST him.

Trump’s 2018 number: 37%

That’s a statistically significant difference … which is, incidentally, about the same as spread in the Congressional generic ballot surveys.

That should give the Dems some confidence going into the election.

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Of course, the numbers split along party lines.

Across his 2 midterm elections, Obama averaged 44% of registered Democrat voters who said their midterm votes were primarily a vote FOR him.

Trump’s 2018 number: 48%

That’s also statistically significant.

An advantage to the GOP candidates.

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Note: registered voters aren’t likely voters … and likely voters aren’t actual voters.

Let’s see which party really has the enthusiasm edge and wins the turnout battle.

We’ll know in a week (maybe)….

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