About the 2020 Presidential election…

Impeachment imbroglio raises some very interesting scenarios.

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Over the weekend, mused about possible outcomes for the Dems impeachment offensive and the impact on the 2020 election.

My current bet:

  • House will approve articles of impeachment on a straight party line vote (regardless of any evidence or legal logic) … a couple of GOP reps jump ship, allowing Pelosi to position the vote as bi-partisan.
  • A majority of Senators will vote to remove Trump from office but the vote won’t be close to the 2/3s threshold that’s needed, so Trump survives.
  • Biden will be toast, so it’ll be Warren versus Trump … and maybe an Indie will jump in.
  • It’ll be Nixon vs. McGovern 2.0 … as pro-Trumpsters come out of the woodwork in droves … and Dem fat cats reject Warren’s brand of socialism.

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But, there are a couple of other interesting “what if” scenarios…

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(1) What if enough “never Trump” GOP senators jump ship and the Senate votes to remove Trump from office?

First, removing Trump from office does not disqualify him from running for president in 2020 (or in any subsequent election).

For details and some “color”, read Congress Should Remove Trump from Office, But Let Him Run Again in 2020 by Edward Foley, a law prof. at Ohio State, and Could President Trump be impeached and convicted – but also reelected? 

If that happens, Dems will have a strong campaign talking point: “Geez, the guy was impeached and removed” … but, pro-Trumpers will counter with “Witch hunt!!!” … so, Trump vs. Warren still goes to Trump.

A MAJOR downside for Trump under this scenario is that — during the period between removal and re-inauguration — Trump would be vulnerable to indictment for various state-level criminal charges from which he’s now immunized since sitting presidents can’t be indicted.

But, indictments aren’t disqualifying and would rally pro-Trumpers.

Interesting twist: GOP might lose the Senate under this scenario since pro-Trumpers will rally against Senators who voted for removal.

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(2) What if a compelling independent enters the race (Bloomberg?) and, together, Warren and the Indie keep Trump from getting the necessary 270 electoral votes?

That’s still probably ok for Trump.

Here’s why:

According to the Electoral College web site …

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote.

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes, with each Senator casting one vote for Vice President.

Note that for President, each state gets one vote in the House … not each rep.  So a majority of each state’s reps determine the state’s vote.

Take a glance at the map about.

A wide majority of states have a majority of Republicans representing them in Congress.

On a party-line vote, Trump prevails.

Again, the GOP might lose the Senate under this scenario since pro-Trumpers will rally against Senators who voted for removal.

If that’s the case, a Dem controlled Senate could vote Warren’s running mate (Harris? Mayor Pete?) to be Trumps Veep.

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This could get very interesting….

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