So, are the impeachment hearings moving the needle?

Short answer: Yes … to Trump’s benefit.
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Let’s ignore the partisan punditry for a moment and take another look at the numbers.

As we’ve posted before, TV ratings for the hearings have been dismal.

That’s no surprise since 60% of voters say that they are less interested in impeachment than are the politicos and the media … since the hearings are generally dull and confusing to most people … and since the hearings are broadcast during the day — when most people are at work.

So, people who do have an interest, resort to their usual partisan sources of news.

OK, so how are the numbers moving?

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Let’s starts with opinions re: the inquiry proceedings themselves…

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According to the RCP poll-of-polls, support for Schiff’s impeachment inquiry has slipped from 51% to 48% … and opposition to the inquisition (err, inquiry) has increased from 42% to about 45%.

So, support has gone from 9% net favorable to 3% net favorable.

Still, support is net favorable … but it’s less than a majority …marginally net favorable … and decreasingly so (i.e. the trend is unfavorable.

What about views on impeachment itself?

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Same story here…

According to left leaning FiveThirtyEight

Support for impeachment spiked a couple of points as the Ukrainian bruhaha hit the airwaves … but has fallen back to 46.3% (i.e. less than a majority) … and ‘net support’ has fallen to less than a percentage point.

image

So, the groundswell of impeachment support that Pelosi & Schiff anticipated just hasn’t materialized.

With Congress now on another break, impeachment will be diminished in the news cycle, so the numbers aren’t likely to move much.

We’ll be right back to where we started … albeit with the partisan divide hardened even more.

The tide may shift on Dec. 9 when the long-awaited IG Horowitz report is released.

We’ll see …

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