Squeezing the NY antibody test results…

Estimate: 3% of the NY state population are infected asymptomatics .. in circulation and potentially infecting others.
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In my business analytics course, I used to nudge students to “squeeze the rock” .. to get as much possible information out of each test or piece of data.

OK, let’s apply that principle today …

In a prior post, I opined that NY antibody tests were missing an information opportunity.  If they also swabbed the random sample for C-19 diagnostic tests, they’d also have an estimate of the number of infected asymptomatics who are currently in circulation in NY.

OK, it was a missed opportunity.

But, let’s not fret.

We can squeeze the data to get a rough-cut estimate of  the number of infected asymptomatics who are currently in circulation in NY.

Let’s do some arithmetic …

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Let’s start with the data that we previously extracted  from the first set of NY antibody tests.

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The key number is the number of infected asymptomatics — the number of people testing positive for antibodies less the number of confirmed cases (i.e. the  severe symptomatics) … projected up to the state’s population.

That number is 2,417,039 … call it 2.4 million.

Said differently, based on these test results,  90% of New Yorkers who have gotten infected by C-19 have had no or mild symptoms. That’s a big deal.. perhaps the key takeaway from these test results!

Those people aren’t currently infected … they were infected previously.

Let’s assume that they were infected at an even frequency over March and April … call it an 8 week period.

Then, we can assume that approximately 300,000 were infected each week.

And, if we assume that the virus stays with each of them for 2 weeks (i.e. the designated quarantine period) … then we can estimate that 600,000 (2 weeks times 300,000 per week) were infected at any one time during the the 8-week period.

That means that at any one time during the the 8-week period. about 3% of the New York’s 19.4 million population consisted of infected asymptomatics who were in circulation …. potentially infecting others.

That’s for NY state . . for NYC, a best guess would be 4.5% since, proportionately, 50% more people tested positive for antibodies in NYC then the state average.

What’s the “so what” ?

Is 3% a big number or a little number?

Regardless, what are the implications?

Stay tuned, I’m working on that…

3 Responses to “Squeezing the NY antibody test results…”

  1. More about NY’s antibody test results… | The Homa Files Says:

    […] Squeezing the NY antibody test results […]

  2. Still more about the NY antibody test results… | The Homa Files Says:

    […] a prior post, we squeezed the NY antibody test results pretty hard and estimated that about 600,000 New Yorkers are walking around at any one time […]

  3. If I test positive for COVID, am I infected? | The Homa Files Says:

    […] a prior post, we squeezed the NY antibody test results and estimated that in NY — the hottest of the hot […]

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