The Homa Files

Over the weekend, Gov. Cuomo reported final results from the NY antibody test program..

Key Data:

12.3% of the NY state sample tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

Note: The rate in NYC was 19.9%

That extrapolates to 2.4 million New Yorkers.

Given the current number of cases (327,374), 2.1 million (86.3%) of the already infected people were, by definition asymptomatic — having no or mild symptoms.

The implied deaths to infections rate is (1.0%).

The implications…

=============

1. The results are consistent with data from earlier infected countries …  i.e. approximately 85% of people who get infected with the coronavirus exhibit no or mild symptoms.

2. The 12.3% prior infection rate (i.e. positive antibody results) … is far below the 60% to 80% level required for herd immunity.

3 The 1% death rate (i.e. ratio of deaths to people infected) is more than double the commonly reported seasonal flu death rate.

Note: Reported deaths include all deaths among confirmed coronavirus cases (i.e. “died with”, not necessarily “died because of”) … and, includes deaths of people “presumed” to be infected but not confirmed.

Bottom line: No news that’s particularly good or particularly bad.

=============

Source data:

This entry was posted on May 5, 2020 at 9:30 am and is filed under Covid-19 Testing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.