Major upward revision of IHME forecast
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1,324 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> DOWN for 5 consecutive days
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,383 DOWNWARD
442 NY+NJ+CT 33% of US Total
See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?
Cumulative Deaths
69,925 Worldometer
35,451 NY+NJ+CT 51% of US Total
IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4 Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<
Starting today, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.
(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.
The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.
The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.
It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.
Source: IHME
Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
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click to see C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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The Homa Files 
May 5, 2020 at 12:21 pm |
Prof Homa,
Greetings from Silicon Valley! I know you are a statistician and loves numbers. Thanks for tracking the data meticulously daily.. the comment “Achieving the revised forecast requires that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381”
makes me feel like goal post much more suitable for stock analysis or marketing target to hit… I personally don’t want us to meet the forecast.. i want to miss it.. again just a human feeling
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Achieving the revised forecast requires that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4. Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.
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