The Homa Files

Consecutive 5-day down streak ENDED
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2,350 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day trend 1,875 trending down
> 3-day trend 1,858 DOWNWARD

678 NY+NJ+CT 29% of US Total
346  Pennsylvania         

See: How will we know when we’ve turned the COVID-19 corner?

Cumulative Deaths 
72,275 Worldometer
33,573  NY+NJ+CT 46% of US Total

IHME Model Cumulative US Death Projection:
134,475 by Aug. 4  Rev. UP 62,492 on 5/5
>> Projection roughly DOUBLED <<

Now, IHME forecasts for the US are based on a new hybrid model.

(The original model) is now combined with a disease transmission model.

The latest US forecasts are based on four key determinants estimated from data: mobility, population density, testing, and temperature.

The new model captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing.

It enables predicting a resurgence when social distancing mandates are relaxed.

Source: IHME

Note: The revised forecast implies that new deaths average ~ 650 per day from now until Aug. 4.  Current 7-day moving average is 1,875; 3-day moving average is 1,381.

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click to see Daily STATES Data and C-19 Data Reference Guide: ALL STATES
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Related Posts:

Flattening the COVID-19 curve

About that forecast of 60,000 coronavirus deaths

This entry was posted on May 6, 2020 at 5:59 am and is filed under COVID-19 Tracking. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.