The Homa Files

It’s now crystal clear that one of the great fails of the C-19 response was not recognizing that nursing homes would be underprepared hot spots … and, rather than taking all-out action to contain the carnage, some states directed Covid patients back to nursing homes, inflaming the outbreak.

How bad has the carnage been?

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a survey  this week reporting 25,923 nursing home death tied to Covid-19 and a death rate of 2.7% (the ratio of deaths to  the number of nursing home residents).

But, …

• CMS only surveyed federally regulated nursing homes … slightly more than 1/2 of the total number of nursing homes in the US
• Only 80% of the surveyed nursing homes replied to the survey
• The survey only asked for death after May 6 (huh?)
• Other LTC (long-term-care) facilities — e.g. assisted living, veterans homes — were not surveyed.
• Only That’s about 25% of all Covid-related deaths — a big number that comes with a couple of big “buts” — it didn’t cover long-term-care (LTC) facilities except for nursing homes, only 80% of nursing homes replied to the CMS survey … and the survey only asked about deaths after May 6 (huh?).

Bottom line: Bottom line: The CMS survey way understates the number of LTC deaths..

Red shading indicates nursing home hot spots

USA total pegs the number of deaths at 40,600.

A WSJ tally of state data totals more than 42,000 Covid-19-associated deaths in long-term-care facilities.

And, the WSJ says that its count  “likely undercounts the full impact of the outbreak because of reporting lags and incomplete information from some states”.

How much is the undercount?

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According to the most current analysis compiled by the CTUP (The Committee to Unleash Prosperity):

44,443 C-19 deaths have befallen residents of nursing homes, veterans’ homes and other long-term care facilities … resulting in the death of over 2% of the population in those facilities.

• For perspective, that death rate applied to the total US adult population would translate to about 2.5 million deaths.

Drilling down…

States with more than 1,000 total Covid deaths and more than 750 LTC deaths):

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States with more than 50% of deaths in LTC facilities

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States with an LTC death rate greater than 2% of the LTC resident population.

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click for ALL STATES DATA
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This entry was posted on June 3, 2020 at 10:00 am and is filed under COVID-19 Tracking. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.