The Homa Files

IMPORTANT: Data reporting criteria have changed! Details below…
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Confirmed cases have spiked upwards, partially due to increased testing of asymptomatics. Most of the uptick is in the under 45 age group.  Some of the under 45s require hospitalization, but relatively few die (compared to the elderly death rate).

WSJ

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663 Daily New Deaths Worldometer
> 7-day average 591
> Peaked on April 21

WSJ     See: Changes in Reporting

IMPORTANT NOTE: The June 25 spike in Daily New Deaths is attributable to changes in the criteria that some states are using to count Covid deaths. The June 25 number includes 2.111 in cumulative adjustment based on the revised criteria.

Below is our usual chart … that neutralizes the new reporting

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Cumulative Deaths 
127,640 Worldometer includes upward reporting adjustment

Projection: 184,967 by Oct 1 @ current 7-day M.A.

IHME Model Cume US Death Projection:
179,106 by Oct 1 UP 22,023 on June 25

This entry was posted on June 27, 2020 at 7:33 am and is filed under COVID-19 Tracking. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.