No question, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has skyrocketed since mid-June.
During the same time period, daily new deaths reported have leveled off … typically ranging between 500 and 1,000.
The chart below displays the 7-day moving average of daily reported new cases and deaths … indexed to their levels in mid-April when daily new deaths previously peaked (2,824 on April 21) and daily new cases were running about 30,000.
![image_thumb[18]](https://kenhoma.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/image_thumb18.png "image_thumb[18]")
Data Source: Worldometer
My take:
Even factoring a lag time between case diagnoses and deaths, it doesn’t appear that the higher case counts are driving a commensurate spike in deaths.
The Homa Files 
July 18, 2020 at 9:05 pm |
Yup. Thankfully, so far the curve for daily new cases does not resemble the curve for daily new deaths. That may mean that case counts in other states are mostly driven by younger people, as in Maryland. A big question is whether they will infect the more vulnerable age groups, although many young people are also afflicted with complicating conditions that put them at greater risk. Per the 7/17 Baltimore Sun COVID update, “young adults between 20 and 39 years old make up more than a third of all known coronavirus cases in the state (Maryland) and account for more than half of all new infections in the past several days. These two groups, with 11,972 and 14,183 respective infections, have climbed steadily since the beginning of May, outpacing all other groups. And cases among those in their 20s have spiked even more rapidly in the past week.”
July 22, 2020 at 10:00 am |
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