The Sun Belt states vs. New York and its neighbors…

We’ve been emphasizing that while the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled since mid-April, daily reported new deaths have arguably stabilized at about half of their mid-April level.


Today, let’s get a bit more granular and drill down to the states’ level… where the data is VERY interesting.


Below are the 5 states that have the highest number of confirmed COVID cases:


California, Florida, Texas (and Arizona) are taking a lot of heat these days (pun intended) for their skyrocketing case counts.

First, note that NY & NJ have accumulated just under 50,000 COVID deaths … adding CT and MA ups that total to over 60,000.

Combined, CA, FL, TX & AZ have racked up under 20,000.

That’s a group-to-group ratio of about 3 to 1.


Before shouting: “yeah, but there are more people” … look at the deaths per million.

NY & NJ are at about 1,700 deaths per million.

CA, FL, TX are at about 200 deaths per million.

That’s a ratio of over 8 to 1.


Note also that the top 4 (NY, CA, FL, TX) are all  in the same ballpark re: the number of confirmed cases.

Roughly 8% of the confirmed cases in NY & NJ have resulted in deaths.

But in CA, FL, TX (& AZ), less than 2% of confirmed cases have resulted in deaths.



Perhaps the Sun Belt states are just lagging NY & Friends experience and the worst is yet to come for them.

Or, there may be an explainable discontinuity in the cases-to-deaths relationship.

We’ll push on that thought tomorrow.

4 Responses to “The Sun Belt states vs. New York and its neighbors…”

  1. Dixie Says:

    Do you see any sources for info on the age demographics of those currently hospitalized versus the same quantities of patients hospitalized at the peak in April? It would be interesting to know if those hospitalized now are, on the whole, younger folks

  2. Elaine Hammers Says:

    I have heard that some places, like New York, classify just about every death as COVID related even without actually testing positive. Pneumonia, heart conditions, COPD and even “normal” seasonal flu deaths are all classified as COVID. This would certainly distort the numbers.

    • Los Says:

      “I’ve heard” is a very reliable source. Fun Fact: did you you know nobody actually dies from a heart attack of cancer? It’s usually the lack of blood flow or some organ failure that gets you.

      • Elaine Hammers Says:

        Actually I work in the medical profession and “I’ve heard” this information from colleagues. Did you know that under the CARES act hospital “grants” are based on the number of COVID patients treated? Hospitals are looking for assistance from the federal government because during COVID they could not take in any elective surgery – so they lost significant income. Thus the incentive to increase the numbers.

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