The Homa Files

B of A says “the Coronavirus is rolling over”.
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If you’ve been following our Daily C-19 Data Dashboard, you’ve undoubtedly noticed that the 7-day moving average of confirmed cases has fallen by over 30% since its peak on July 23.

That’s good news but the case counts– as we oft repeat —  are a very fuzzy-math number since they are impacted by the number and mix of people being tested.

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Positivity Rate

Dr. Birx says to watch the percentage of people testing positive — the so-called “positivity rate”.

It’s currently at 6.5% — about 1/3 of the rate during the NY-area outbreak.

That’s also good news but, again, “positivity” is an equivocal metric since it’s impacted by the mix of people being tested.

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So, the B of A analysts say to focus on hospitalization rates.

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Hospitalization Rates

B of A’s observation:

We continue to see clear signs the Coronavirus is rolling over in the US.

The number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 declines at a rapid pace.

In fact, the number of covid-related hospitalizations has fallen by about 25% in the past month … and, at the current rate of decline, will be down to the prior covid-period low point sometime in mid-September.

More specifically, the number of covid-related hospitalizations in hot spot states has fallen more than 60% in Arizona, more than 40% in California and Florida and more than 25% in Texas.

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It’s way to early to claim victory but, collectively, the metrics are moving in the right direction.

This entry was posted on August 21, 2020 at 10:00 am and is filed under Coronavirus - Covid 19, COVID-19 Tracking. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.