What if the US had “gone Sweden” on COVID?

Let’s look at some numbers..

The Barrington Declaration — signed by thousands of scientists and medical practitioners (and, of course, censored by Google, et. al.) — has really stimulated my thinking about the past & Biden-prospective COVID lockdowns.

For a summary of the Barrington Declaration, see: Which scientists to believe & to follow?

The current COVID death counts are eye-opening:

The U.S. has accumulated about 665 deaths per million … Sweden has accumulated 585 deaths per million — a rate that is about 12% lower than the U.S. .. and whopping 66% lower than the heavily locked down state of New York.

I’d call those numbers statistically significant.

Now, let’s look at the numbers from a different angle…


Last weekend, the WSJ ran an article titled What the Pandemic Has Taught Us About Science.

The entire article was interesting, and one paragraph really caught my eye:

An epidemiological model developed last March at Imperial College London was treated by politicians as hard evidence that without lockdowns, the pandemic could kill 2.2 million Americans, 510,000 Britons and 96,000 Swedes.

Keep in mind that the Imperial College model was Fauci’s hard proof to Trump that a lockdown was required.

Otherwise the U.S. would suffer over 2.2 million deaths.

So far, the U.S. has accumulated 220,000 COVID-related deaths … about 10% of the IC “no mitigation” projection.

Sweden urged citizens to adopt social distancing rules and to stop gatherings of more than 50 people.  But, relied on voluntary compliance, not mandates … and didn’t lockdown their economy.

OK, so let’s assume that the IC Model was equally valid when applied to all other countries, including Sweden.

The model forecast that 96,000 Swedes would die under their “no mitigation” scenario.

To date, fewer than 6,000 Swedes have succumbed to the coronavirus … that’s only 6.25% of the IC model’s projection … which is 3.75pp lower than the U.S.

If the U.S. were running at Sweden’s rate —  6.25% of forecast — instead of 10% … we’d be at 137,500 deaths … 37.5% fewer than the actual 220,000.

Advantage to Sweden’s no lockdown approach … even before considering the collateral damage to the economy and other public health impacts.

My take: The Barrington scientists and medical practitioners are on the right track… too bad they’re being censored by Google, et. al.  Let’s debate the issue !


P.S. Science does still another u-turn:

The WHO has changed its stance on lockdowns.

On Oct. 8, David Nabarro — the WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19 —  told The Spectator

We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus.”

The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.

I’m getting whiplash from these guys…

One Response to “What if the US had “gone Sweden” on COVID?”

  1. Alex Says:

    Prof. Homa,

    Is it possible that lockdowns are a necessary measure when a significant % of the population refuses to follow social distancing, occupancy, and masking guidelines?


    What measures would you advocate to keep the inhabitants of senior communities safe, (since, inevitably, infections enter from outside, principally via staff)?

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