Back in early February, Dr. Scott Gottlieb — a former FDA Commissioner — offered a projection that stuck in my mind.
In a WSJ op-ed, Gottlieb wrote:
After early challenges, vaccine delivery is keeping up with supply.
But by the end of March, the monthly vaccine supply may reach 100 million doses.
With improved delivery, at some point, perhaps in April, supply will start exceeding demand.
Sure enough …
For example, at a micro level…
Back in February when I was in the heat of my vax hunt, CVS “offered” covid vaccinations at about a dozen stores in Maryland.
I say “offered” because “availability” was scarce and scoring an appointment had about the same odds as winning lotto.
Today, CVS offers shots at more than 100 locations … and the vast majority of them have vaccine available on any given day.
Aggregating up to the macro level, the CDC reports that the stockpile of doses “distributed” but not yet “administered” is over 70 million doses … and growing.
About 40 million doses are, in effect, being held in reserve for second shots.
Given the large, free flow of supply from Pfizer and Moderna, It’s not evident why these 40 million need to be sequestered for future use.
And, even if there is a just reason, it still leaves a stockpile of over 30 million doses … compelling evidence that supply is now exceeding demand … by a lot!
Which validates Gottlieb’s February warning:
The challenge won’t be how to ration a scarce resource, but how to reach patients reluctant to get vaccinated.
Yep, that’s where we are … and, it should have been anticipated.
The Homa Files 