First colleges, now sports leagues encountering covid case surges…

Again, cohort vaccinations meet waning vax effectiveness to create chaos.

Previously, we demonstrated mathematically that, because of vaccines’  waning  effectiveness, a near-100% vaccination rate slows, but doesn’t stop covid spread  … we  showed  how the underlying math largely explains the  surge  in covid cases on college campuses … and we warned that colleges might be sending infected students home for the holidays.

Well, colleges aren’t alone.

The Hill is among sources reporting that:


Case in point: The NFL

During the first 2 1/2 months of the football season, from early September to late November, there were only about 110 players on (and off) the COVID-19 reserve list.

That number is over 100 again, and some teams are be being hit particularly hard.

The Rams list was 13 last week and continues to grow; the Browns have 15 players and their head coach out.


According to the league, nearly 95% of NFL players are vaccinated.

But, just like colleges, the  contagion spike is largely attributable to the Omicron strain of the virus,  “cohorted vaccinations” and waning vaccine effectiveness.

On those latter points, glad to see somebody else has seen the light.

Zachary Binney, a sports epidemiologist at Oxford College of Emory University says:,

One possible explanation for the recent spate of cases is waning immunity from the initial vaccines. 

Lots of professional athletes likely got vaccinated around the same time, so their immunity could be wearing off simultaneously.


The Hill points out: “For the NFL, the timing couldn’t be worse as many teams are playing some of the most meaningful games in the final weeks of the regular season.”

Specifically, teams may have to resort to playing 2nd and 3rd stringers in their most important games in the seasons.

Despite play-off and championship implications, the NFL had hoped  to play on without postponements or cancellations.

Already that hope has perished.

Saturday’s scheduled game between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders was rescheduled for Monday.

23  Browns players — including the team’s starting quarterback –were on Saturday’s covid list.

Sunday’s scheduled game between the Washington Football Team and the Philadelphia Eagles was also postponed until Tuesday.

The Washington Football team had 23 players on the covid list, including its first- and second-string quarterbacks.

Sunday’s  game between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams was also postponed until Tuesday.

As of last Friday, the Rams had a league-leading 29 players on the covid list.

But, the Monday Night Football game between the Bears and the Vikings played on … even though the Bears had 16 players sidelined with covid, including its entire defensive backfield.

The Bears lost.

While there weren’t play-off implications for the Bears, there were for the Vikings

What a mess.


P.S. And, what about the college bowl games and championship play-offs?

They’re at he intersection of the campus and sports’ covid case surges.


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