Archive for September 15th, 2022

Inflation: The macro view…

September 15, 2022

Bottom line: Sorry, Joe, it’s not zero!

Here’s the big picture:



Diving into the numbers:

> When Biden was inaugurated, the CPI was 262.2 … in August, it was 295.6 … that’s a 12.7% increase over Biden’s 20 month term … on an annualized basis, that’s a 7.22% APR

> In comparison: When Trump was inaugurated, the CPI was 243.6 … when he left office in Jan. 2021, it was 262.2 … that’s a 7.6% increase over Trump’s 4 year term … on an annualized basis, that’s a 1.85% APR

> Cutting the numbers a different way: From Trump’s inauguration to Aug. 2022, the CPI increased 21.3% … 1/3 of the increase occurred during Trump’s run (at 1.85% APR , which the Fed targets for the U.S. long term rate) … and 2/3s of the increase has hit during Biden’s reign (at a 7.22% APR)



Think about this:

> If inflation had continued at Trump’s APR 1.85% APR), the CPI would be about 270 today … we’d be seeing prices about 10% lower than they are today.


Ask yourself a variant of Ronald Reagan’s “cut to the chase” question:

Are your pantry, wallet, IRA, 401K, 529s better off today than they were 20 months ago?

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