Obama’s stump riff is that we’re in this debt-deficit mess because of 2 unfunded wars, an unfunded prescription drug plan, and the unfunded Bush tax cuts.
Oh, really?
Let’s look at the nums … starting with Bush’s last year – 2008.
A couple of takeaways:
- No surprise, the big 3 – defense, Medicare and Social Security – are roughly equal in magnitude and account for about 70% of gov’t spending
- Bush handed off to Obama a deficit of roughly $500 Billion and a $10 Trillion national debt.
- IMPORTANT: ‘Baked in’ to those numbers are Obama’s talking points: the wars, the Rx plan, and the tax cuts … more on that later.
That’s the static view.
For context, let’s look at Bush’s spending (in his last year) versus Clinton’s spending in his last year (2000):
click to enlarge

A couple of more takeways:
- Bush increased spending over $1 Trillion (2000 to 2008)
…OUCH!
- Almost 1/3 of the increase was in defense spending … 2 wars will do that to you … especially when compared to Clinton’s skinnied down military (remember the “peace dividend” that Reagan handed Clinton?)
- Over 1/4 of the increase was attributable to higher healthcare costs … a prescription drug plan and a touch of inflation will do that to you
- Note: about $200 Billion of the increase is attributable to Welfare (think refundable tax credits) and Education (think NCLB)
- Interesting (to me): The national debt grew by about $4.5 Trillion from 2000 to 2008 … to about $10 Trillion … during the same period, tax receipts (“revenue” in Obama-speak) increased by about $500 Billion (according to the Tax Policy Center)
- Conclusion: The increase in the debt / deficit during the Bush years was more than fully explained by the oversized spending … though marginal tax rates went down, tax receipts increased, offsetting some of the higher spending.
Now, keep in mind, that Obama inherited a national debt of about $10 Trillion and an annual deficit of under $500 Billion.
Also, keep in mind that the spending on the 2 wars and the Rx drug plan were baked into Bush’s final year’s numbers.
OK, now let’s look at the Obama years.
click to enlarge

Well, well, well.
Total spending for the current year is projected to be almost $1 Trillion over spending in Bush’s last year … and, about $2 Trillion over Clinton’s last year.
Gawd, how can that be?
- Again, keep in mind that the spending on the 2 wars and the Rx drug plan were baked into Bush’s final year’s numbers.
- Still, defense spending increased by 28% (over 2008) … I guess doubling down on Afghanistan, initializing “kinetic activities” in Libya, and tripling the number of drone missile attacks will do that to you.
- Healthcare is up over 25% … to be fair, there’s inflation in there, but there’s also the massive bureaucracy being built to run Obamacare…
- Welfare is up over 25% in 2 years … think food stamps (and more food stamps)
So, there’s a roughly $5.5 Trillion projected increase in the national debt in Obama’s first 3 years …. or, $4.5 Trillion if you still believe that the Stimulus was a necessary and extraordinary budget item.
Double OUCH !
During the period 2008 to 2011, tax policy (i.e. rates, brackets and deductions) stayed essentially constant – remember that the Bush tax cuts were extended last December.
But, tax receipts went down from $2.524 Trillion in 2008 to $2.162 Trillion projected in 2011. I guess a “making work pay” program, a payroll tax holiday, and 9% unemployment will do that to you.
* * * * *
Bottom line: Readers know that I stay pretty close to this stuff.
Still, the numbers are mind-numbing … even to me.
Bush added a Trillion to the deficit over 8 years. Obama did it in 3.
Bush added about $5 Trillion to the debt in 8 years. Obama did it in 3.
Bush disappointed when it came to fiscal management.
But, Obama has literally spent us into a potential default.
He thinks the problem is accelerated depreciation on corporate jets and too little tax paid by the rich.
And, he doesn’t seem to understand – despite the Nov. elections –that tax payers don’t want to pay for his spending binges.
I’m not very optimistic …
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