Cases and deaths stubbornly sticky.
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Archive for the ‘COVID-19 Tracking’ Category
Supply > demand, herd date slipping, stockpile growing …
April 30, 2021Herd date slipping as 1st shots continue to drop…
April 29, 2021Cases and deaths stubbornly sticky.
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VAX: First shots continuing to drop … stockpile growing
April 28, 2021Slowing demand (aka vax hesitancy)? J&J pause?
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April 27: COVID Dashboard
April 27: COVID Dashboard
April 27, 2021
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April 26: COVID Dashboard
April 26, 2021Herd immunity date slips as daily shots’ rate (total and 1st shots) declines
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April 23: COVID Dashboard
April 23, 2021Vaccination Rate Dropping (Total & 1st Shots)
… Herd Immunity Date Slipping into June
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April 21: COVID Dashboard
April 22, 2021Heads-up: 1st shots decreasing as a percentage of total daily shots … so, herd immunity date slipping into June.
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April 20: COVID Dashboard
April 21, 2021Heads-up: 1st shots decreasing as a percentage of total daily shots … so, herd immunity date slipping into June.
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April 20: COVID Dashboard
April 20, 2021
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April 19: COVID Dashboard
April 19, 2021
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April 15: COVID Dashboard
April 15, 2021Daily New Deaths metric drops below 750
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How will we know when we’re near-normal again?
April 13, 2021Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
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Now that the country is getting vaccinated at a rapid clip, everybody is asking the same question: When can we resume “normal” life again?
The verbiage from the political-scientists and pundits ranges from ‘pretty soon’ to ‘probably never’.
Thanks guys.
Is herd immunity within reach or asymptotically impossible because of ”vaccine hesitancy”?
How many covid survivors now have “natural immunity”?
How long does natural or vaccine immunity last? Weeks? Month? Years?
Case counts spike then drop like a rock … with “scientific” explanations mimicking financial analysts’ head-scratching rationales for why the market went up (or down) each day.
My advice from the get-go has been — in the words of Nate Silver — to ignore the noise and focus on the signal … the covid-related death count.
Back in Jan.-Feb. 2020, Dr. Fauci was saying:
This not a major threat for the people of the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.
I bought in to Fauci’s read of the situation, but said that I’d start worrying when daily covid deaths surpassed those of a a bad flu year.
The were about 80,000 flu-related fatalities in worst recent flu year. Source
Spread across the entire year, that works out to about 250 deaths per day; spread across the usual 4 month flu season, that’s about 750 deaths per day.
Of course, we blew past those numbers … and stayed at sky-high levels for most of the past year.
Now, we’re coming back down … with enough people vaccinated or naturally immune that the trend and levels are likely to stick.
So, my advice: Take case counts with a grain of salt, be encouraged by vaccination rates and stay focused on the averaged number of daily new deaths (DNDs).
Based on the flu benchmark, when the weekly average of DNDs drops below 750, we’re probably near-normal … when it drops below 250, then giddyup … we’re there!
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For more detail. see: MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
MUST READ: How will we know when we’ve turned a COVID-19 corner?
April 13, 2021Stay focused on the number of Daily New Deaths!
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This is a relevant excerpt from a long ago prior post (May 2020)
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Why have I centered on Daily New Deaths (DND) as my key metric?
First, saving lives is our paramount objective, right? If yes, it should be our focus metric.
Second, I think that most other metrics that are being bandied about are quite problematic.
Counting deaths — while a bit macabre — is a more reliable process than counting, say, the number of infected people.
Sure, I’d like to know the number of people infected with COVID-19.
But, unless everybody — or at least a large statistical sample — is tested, the number of confirmed cases is subject to lots of statistical issues.
Most notably, who is being tested and who isn’t? What about the asymptomatic “hidden carriers”? What are the criteria for confirming a COVID infection? What about false positives (and false negatives)? How to standardize the reporting processes across states? How to keep governmental units from fudging the numbers?
Importantly, if testing increases, then confirmed cases goes up.
Is that an indication of more virus spread or just a reflection of more testing?
I sure can’t tell.
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Again, counting fatalities is probably the most reliable metric.
Fatalities are discrete events – so they’re countable.
Still, even deaths may have some counting imperfections.
For example, many non-hospitalized people die and are buried without autopsies. Some may be uncounted COVID victims.
On the other hand, some people may die and be diagnosed with COVID infections. That doesn’t necessarily mean that COVID killed them. That’s especially true with COVID since it’s most deadly for people with other health problems.
And, as we stated above, the definition of COVID deaths has changed:
COVID-related” means “COVID present”, not necessarily “COVID caused” … and that, along the way, “present” was redefined from “confirmed” to “presumed”
Further, COVID deaths are a function of two drivers: the incidence of the virus … and, the nature, level and timing of therapeutic healthcare.
Said differently, more effective therapeutic healthcare will dampen the death toll.
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Bottom line: “Daily New Deaths” is the number we should be watching.
If it shows a consistent downward trend, then we’ll know we’ve turned the corner.
If it stays stable (at a high level) or turns upward, we’ll know that we’re in deep yogurt.
April 13: COVID Dashboard
April 13, 2021
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April 9: COVID Dashboard
April 9, 2021
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April 8: COVID Dashboard
April 8, 2021
April 7: COVID Dashboard
April 7, 2021
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April 6: COVID Dashboard
April 6, 2021
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April 5: COVID Dashboard
April 5, 2021
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April 4: COVID Dashboard
April 4, 2021
April 2: COVID Dashboard
April 2, 2021
April 1: COVID Dashboard
April 1, 2021
March 31: COVID Dashboard
March 31, 2021
March 30: COVID Dashboard
March 30, 2021
March 29: COVID Dashboard
March 29, 2021
March 28: COVID Dashboard
March 28, 2021
March 27: COVID Dashboard
March 27, 2021Daily New Covid Deaths Drop Below 1,000
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Herd Immunity Projection details…
March 26: COVID Dashboard
March 26, 2021
March 25: COVID Dashboard
March 25, 2021
March 24: COVID Dashboard
March 24, 2021
March 23: COVID Dashboard
March 23, 2021
March 22: Herd Immunity Tracker
March 22, 2021
March 19: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 19, 2021
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March 18: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 18, 2021
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March 18: COVID Snapshot
March 18, 2021
Note: At the index starting date: deaths were ~1,000 per day. hospitalizations were ~55K, cases were ~ 100K and tests were ~1.4 MM per day
March 17: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 17, 2021
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March 17: COVID Snapshot
March 17, 2021
Note: At the index starting date: deaths were ~1,000 per day. hospitalizations were ~55K, cases were ~ 100K and tests were ~1.4 MM per day
March 16: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 16, 2021
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March 16: COVID Snapshot
March 16, 2021
Note: At the index starting date: deaths were ~1,000 per day. hospitalizations were ~55K, cases were ~ 100K and tests were ~1.4 MM per day
March 15: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 15, 2021
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March 15: COVID Snapshot
March 15, 2021
March 12: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 12, 202125.1% of adults 1st-shot vaxed; 62.4% over 65
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32.9 million doses stockpiled & in pipeline
March 12: COVID Snapshot
March 12, 2021
March 11: COVID Snapshot
March 11, 2021
March 11 COVID VAX Snapshot
March 11, 2021
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32.1 million doses stockpiled &i in pipeline
March 10: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 10, 2021
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60% adults over 65 have received 1st shots
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29.5 MM doses in inventory’
March 10: COVID Snapshot
March 10, 2021
March 9: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 9, 20212.2 MM shots / day (7-Day MA)
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23% adults over 18 received 1st shots
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24.3 MM doses in inventory’
March 9: COVID Snapshot
March 9, 2021
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March 8: COVID VAX Snapshot
March 8, 2021Averaging over 2 million shots per day !
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The Homa Files 