Archive for the ‘Expertise’ Category

It’s official: Fauci whiffs, again!

December 15, 2020

How many times can a media-proclaimed “leading expert” miss the mark and still hold the title?

By my count:

  • He originally said that the COVID risk to Americans was miniscule
  • He opposed the Chinese travel ban as unnecessary or, at least, premature
  • He illogically told people not to wear masks since they won’t help and would deplete PPE stockpiles.  Only the latter was true.
  • He grossly misled Congress regarding the COVID death rate (by an order of magnitude!), conflating the conflation of the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR).  The CFR (of which Fauci was likely referring) is about 10 times the IFR. Source
  • He championed the “15 days to stop the spread” … using the widely discredited projection of  2 million “do nothing” deaths to seal the deal with Trump. (Note: the 15 day program is approaching day #300).
  • He lauded Cuomo’s “Gold Standard” response to COVID … despite highest death count (over 35,000), 2nd highest fatality rate (NJ is #1), wasted resources (think: a hospital ship, field hospitals and ventilators), an economic disaster in NYC and, oh yeah, a crushing 2nd wave of COVIID.
  • He admitted to boosting his estimate of the herd immunity threshold “partly based on new science and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.” Source
  • He led the charge to close the schools (but now says to close the bars, but open the schools)
  • And, back in March, he proclaimed that “it will take a year or more to develop a Coronavirus vaccine.”

Flashback to March 3, 2020:

Well, Dr. Leading Expert, the first shots of vaccine were administered yesterday… thanks to Trump’s Operation Warp Speed.

Perhaps, Fauci will rush to CNN today to say “Trump was right, I was wrong.”

I won’t hold my breath …

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P.S. Biden announced Fauci as his chief medical adviser.  Say, what?

That’s not following “the science”, it’s following the “political science”.

Cognitive biases: Falling for false expertise …

December 6, 2019

This week’s “constitutional” hearings reminded me:

People don’t naturally know who they should listen to.
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Worse yet, in a majority of instances when a reliable expert is identified, people end up following somebody else’s advice.

That’s what Univ. of Utah’s management professor Bryan Bonner concludes.

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Bonner observes that rather than identifying advisers with actual competence, people habitually fall for spurious “proxies of expertise”.

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