Archive for the ‘Part-time workers’ Category

Folks are still discouraged about the economy … here’s why.

December 15, 2014

It has been a while since we looked into the employment numbers … long overdue.

I was awakened by a WSJ article that put a positive spin on the November jobs report – jobs continue to be added …. and, they’re full-time jobs:

“The economy has seen a net gain of more than 6 million full-time jobs since the official end date of the 2007-09 recession, which was in June 2009. The economy has witnessed a net increase of just 311,000 part-time jobs over the same period,”

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Hmmm.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

What the Journal says is true, but not complete … and picking to start the chart at the trough of the recession obscures some of the context.

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Last week’s employment report in 4 charts …

July 7, 2014

Lots of hoopla last week that the unemployment employment rate dropped to 6.1% as employers added 288,000 jobs

Yep, 288k jobs added … which continues a year-over-year running rate growth in employment of slightly less than 2% …  a little less than real GDP year-over-year growth.

FRED Total Employment  June 2014

But, there’s more to the story.

Let’s dissect that 288,000 …

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Jobs: The story in 3 charts …

September 9, 2013

The Feds reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.3% … despite tepid job growth – fewer jobs added than expected, and those that were added were in retail & hospitality.

Most analysts quickly pointed out that the unemployment rate dropped because the number of people dropping out of the labor force was about twice the number of jobs added.

In technical jargon, the labor force participation rate dropped to a 35 year low.

 

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A complementary metric that combines the effect of the Unemployment Rate and the Labor Force Participation Rate is the Civilian Employment to Population Ratio – the percentage of the working age population that has a job.

That rate dropped about 4 percentage points during the recession … then has flatlined during the “recovery”.

That is, job growth has barely kept up with population growth.

 

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What about my favorite?  The downmixing to more part time positions?

 

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Jobs: More on the part-timer trend …

August 12, 2013

Couple of charts – and conflicting interpretations — caught my eye.

First, Wall Street Daily posted their version of an analysis revealing that over 3-in-4 jobs created in 2013 have been part-time jobs.

Their conclusion: “it’s the scariest chart ever”.

Maybe a bit of hyperbole, but certainly worth watching

 

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Here’s another take on the trend …

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Not to worry about part-time jobs … say, what?

July 25, 2013

MarketWatch had a piece scolding folks who are saying that we’re becoming a part-time economy.

The essence of their argument:

1) Employment data is noisy and June was a blip

2) Since the bottom of the recession, FT jobs have been increasing fater than part-time jobs

 

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Hmmm.

Let’s dig a little deeper …

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Work: “And, give me some fries on the side …”

July 17, 2013

The Feds keep reporting steady job growth.

What gets obscured by the headline is that t there’s a fundamental shift happening in the workforce.

 

Source: ZeroHedge

Here’s what’s going on …

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Nums: The labor market in 3 charts …

July 8, 2013

There were high fives last Friday when the BLS reported a level unemployment rate and – based on the employer survey– 195,000 new jobs.

The numbers from the household survey were less rosy … a gain of 120k jobs.

Still, positive job growth.

Here’s the rub …

The new jobs (and more) were part-time jobs … up 360k on the population survey.

In fact, full-time jobs declined in June by 240k jobs.

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Let’s put those numbers in a historical context …

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Nums: THE way to look at the employment numbers …

May 10, 2013

In a  couple of the past week’s posts we’ve been exploring the employment down mixing from full-time to part-time jobs.

I personally think that it is one of the most important – and least reported trends in the economy.

Flashback to last Friday … the BLS headline was that 165,000 jobs were added in April and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%

That news flash elicited giddy re-reporting … e.g. Business Insider’s “STOCKS GO WILD AFTER AWESOME JOBS REPORT” … “awesome” and all caps,

Yep, total employment went up 165,000 jobs … that’s true

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But, here’s the rest of the story …

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Part-timing it: Retailers adding employees … and cutting hours.

May 8, 2013

According to IBD

Retailers – prepping for the ObamaCare mandates — are cutting workers’ hours and reclassifying them as part-timers.

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Here’s the data

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Nums: The shift to part-timers …

May 2, 2013

In a prior post, we reported that middle income jobs were disappearing … apparently down mixing to lower income jobs.

Here’s more …

The NY Times reports that about 7.6 million Americans working part-time jobs are doing so reluctantly, and would rather have a full-time job … that’s about 3 million more than there were when the recession began at the end of 2007.

Most of the part-time jobs are in retail and food service … where companies are throttling full-time employment in advance of ObamaCare penalties.

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