Archive for the ‘Virginia’ Category

Is Virginia in the bag for Hillary?

November 4, 2016

Based on recent history, I think not.


Yesterday we posted results from a Hampton College poll that had Trump pulling to within 3 points of Clinton … after trailing by double digits just a week or so again.


I have no idea whether Hampton College polls are credible, or not.

But, the most recent results brought to mind the 2014 Senate race between incumbent Democrat Mark Warner and former RNC head Ed Gillespie.

As Nate Silver put it:

Everything favored Warner.

He’d raised considerably more money than Gillespie and won overwhelmingly in 2008.

Gillespie — while an experienced political hand as the former head of the Republican National Committee — had never run for public office before.


Right before the election, the polls had Warner up by about 9 points.

Gillespie was closing, but the gap was big.



So, what was the outcome?