Archive for the ‘Voter registration, turnout’ Category

How many eligible citizens turnout to vote?

November 8, 2016

What’s the “mix” by party affiliation?

=========

By diving deeper into the widely varying polls, the obvious became evident to me.

By and large, the polls get about the same same answers by ‘type’ of voter … e.g. about 90% of voters throw their support behind their party’s candidate.

So, the variance in ‘headline’ numbers is almost entirely attributable to party-affiliation ‘mix’ – the proportion of voters from each party that are expected to turnout to vote.

Polls assuming that many more Dems will vote than GOPs say that Hillary is up by 4 or 5 points; polls that say there will be about an equal number of Dems & GOP turning out narrow the difference or give the edge to Trump.

Given that this will be a turnout election, I dove a bit deeper into voting trends, just to get some historical context for this election.

=========

For openers, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center

In 2012, there were about 219 million citizens eligible to vote … 57.5% (126 million) of them did vote.

Note that 1960 was the high-water mark (64.8%), not 2008 (62.5%).

And, note that 2012 was down about 5 percentage points from 2008.

image

This year, most pundits are predicting that about 130 million will vote.

Clinton is trying to stir enthusiasm to hold together the Obama coalition; Trump is counting on an increase in the number of working-class voters.

=========

Now, lets’s look at the partisan mix – the factor that will determine this year’s election….

(more…)