We’re up to 68 out of 69 weeks that the BLS has under-reported the number of initial unemployment claims … and cast the jobs situation as brighter than it really is.
Based on yesterday’s BLS report, the number for the week ending June 23 was revised upward from 386,000 to 388,000.
Again, I ask: statistical bias or political bias?
If the former: fix it already, BLS !
I know it’s getting a bit tedious … but, , here’s this week’s unemployment claims headline:
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000.
The prior week’s figure was revised up to 392,000 from the previously reported 387,000.”
Said differentlt: Unemployment claims (386,000) decreased by 1,000 from last week’s reported number (387,000) … but last week’s reported number (387,000) was revised up by 5,000 to 392,000 … so, this week’s number is not a decrease of 1,000, it’s a decrease of 6,000.
C’mon man.
My bet: this week’s number 386,000 will be revised upward next week.
That’s a safe bet, since the BLS has under-reported initial unemployment claims for 67 out of the last 68 weeks.
Here’s the recap for the past 7 weeks:
Bottom line: a consistent bias – maybe statistical, maybe political – that provides Obama with jobs’ headlines more favorable than reality
Either the BLS has the worst statisticians on the face of the earth, or they’ve become political hacks.
OK, here’s this week’s unemployment claims headline:
“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 387,000.
The prior week’s figure was revised up to 389,000 from the previously reported 386,000.”
Said differentlt: Unemployment claims (387,000) increased by 1,000 over last week’s reported number (386,000) … but last week’s reported number (386,000) was revised up by 3,000 to 389,000 … so, this week’s number is not an increase of 1,000, it’s a decrease of 2,000.
C’mon man.
My bet: this week’s number 387,000 will be revised upward next week.
That’s a safe bet, since the BLS has under-reported initial unemployment claims for 66 out of the last 67 weeks.
Here’s the recap for the past 7 weeks:
Bottom line: a consistent bias – maybe statistical, maybe political – that provides Obama with jobs’ headlines more favorable than reality
Either the BLS has the worst statisticians on the face of the earth, or they’ve become political hacks.
You decide …
The Homa Files 