Posts Tagged ‘statististical bias’

Cookin’ the books update: 67 of the last 68 weeks.

June 29, 2012

I know it’s getting a bit tedious … but, , here’s this week’s unemployment claims headline:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000.

The prior week’s figure was revised up to 392,000 from the previously reported 387,000.”

Said differentlt: Unemployment claims (386,000) decreased by 1,000 from last week’s reported number (387,000) … but last week’s reported number (387,000) was revised up by 5,000 to 392,000 … so, this week’s number is not a decrease of 1,000, it’s a decrease of 6,000.

C’mon man.

My bet: this week’s number 386,000 will be revised upward next week.

That’s a safe bet, since the BLS has under-reported initial unemployment claims for 67 out of the last 68 weeks.

Here’s the recap for the past 7 weeks:

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Bottom line: a consistent bias – maybe statistical, maybe political – that provides Obama with jobs’ headlines more favorable than reality

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Either the BLS has the worst statisticians on the face of the earth, or they’ve become political hacks.

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