Archive for August 5th, 2009

What’s driving the stock market higher? …. Here’s an analysis you won’t see on CNBC.

August 5, 2009

I think the recent stock market run-up is largely attributable to Pres. Obama’s declining approval ratings … and the numbers seem to corroborate the conclusion (chart below plots O’s disapproval rating vs the DJIA).

Specifically, when O’s approval dropped below 55% (i.e. disapproval increased above 45%) in late June, the market started a big rally.  Of course, correlation doesn’t necessarily connote causation.  So, what’s the explanation?

Simple.  The market is scared to death of Cap & Tax, Trillion $ Government Healthcare, and astronomical national debt.  As O’s approval flags, odds go against T&C and ObamaCare.  The market is factoring in severely watered down initiatives … or a long, long delay in the legislative process.

Pay close attention to O’s approval ratings and public support for ObamaCare.  If those two related metrics gain renewed traction, the market will stall – and probably will tank again.  Just watch.

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Posted in Obama Administration, Stock Market | 3 Comments »

The Auto Biz: Some reasons for optimism …

August 5, 2009

Ken’s Take: I’m still betting under on this one …

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According to the WEJ …

Ssome analysts are predicting that new car sales could hit 15 million in 2012 because …

  • American motorists are scrapping 10 million to 12 million vehicles each year.
  • There are nearly 6million buyers who have been kept out of the market because they owe more on their vehicles than they’re worth.
  • There are millions of consumers who bought the “near new” cars that the daily rental fleets quickly turned over at auction. Now, daily rental companies are holding their inventory much longer (30,000 miles plus), so the “near new” customer will be back in the new car market.

Conceivably, streamlined car manufacturers are positioned to make serious money when the market turns up.

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Excerpted from: WSJ, The Auto Industry’s Comeback, July 29, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204886304574308202570479912.html

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Posted in Autos - Travel | 2 Comments »