What’s driving the stock market higher? …. Here’s an analysis you won’t see on CNBC.

I think the recent stock market run-up is largely attributable to Pres. Obama’s declining approval ratings … and the numbers seem to corroborate the conclusion (chart below plots O’s disapproval rating vs the DJIA).

Specifically, when O’s approval dropped below 55% (i.e. disapproval increased above 45%) in late June, the market started a big rally.  Of course, correlation doesn’t necessarily connote causation.  So, what’s the explanation?

Simple.  The market is scared to death of Cap & Tax, Trillion $ Government Healthcare, and astronomical national debt.  As O’s approval flags, odds go against T&C and ObamaCare.  The market is factoring in severely watered down initiatives … or a long, long delay in the legislative process.

Pay close attention to O’s approval ratings and public support for ObamaCare.  If those two related metrics gain renewed traction, the market will stall – and probably will tank again.  Just watch.

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3 Responses to “What’s driving the stock market higher? …. Here’s an analysis you won’t see on CNBC.”

  1. Mike Says:

    Ken,

    You seem overly absorbed by this Obama disapproval thing. Read Ken Fisher’s latest Forbes Magazine column:
    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0622/wall-street-stocks-obama-portfolio-strategy.html

  2. Consultant Ninja Says:

    Looks like a low R^2 to me over the entire data set. Negative correlation from June 1 – July 15th.

  3. Mr. Dow and President Obama … hmmmm « The Homa Files Says:

    […] https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2009/08/05/whats-driving-the-stock-market-higher-heres-an-analysis-you-… […]

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