The Homa Files

I think the recent stock market run-up is largely attributable to Pres. Obama’s declining approval ratings … and the numbers seem to corroborate the conclusion (chart below plots O’s disapproval rating vs the DJIA).

Specifically, when O’s approval dropped below 55% (i.e. disapproval increased above 45%) in late June, the market started a big rally.  Of course, correlation doesn’t necessarily connote causation.  So, what’s the explanation?

Simple.  The market is scared to death of Cap & Tax, Trillion $ Government Healthcare, and astronomical national debt.  As O’s approval flags, odds go against T&C and ObamaCare.  The market is factoring in severely watered down initiatives … or a long, long delay in the legislative process.

Pay close attention to O’s approval ratings and public support for ObamaCare.  If those two related metrics gain renewed traction, the market will stall – and probably will tank again.  Just watch.

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This entry was posted on August 5, 2009 at 7:59 am and is filed under Obama Administration, Stock Market. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.