Nope. Not according to the AP’s survey of leading economists.
That’s confusing (to me) since the President said on the view that he’s got this one under control.
Who to believe ?
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Excerpted from: AP survey: A bleaker outlook for economy into 2011, July 29,2010
The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.
Economists have turned gloomier in the past three months as “we hit an air pocket in consumer spending,” They foresee weaker growth – less than 3% — and higher unemployment than they did before.
Growth would have to equal 5 percent for a full year to drive the unemployment rate down by 1 percentage point. Neither the economists in the AP survey nor the Obama administration expects that to happen.
More specifically, economists forecast:
- Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.
- The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now — 9.5 percent. It will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.
- State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers. State and local governments cut their spending in the first three months of this year by 3.8%. The drop in state and local government spending shaved about half a percentage point off the U.S. gross domestic product in the first three months of this year.
Full article:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ioRXliVfpQrwlEITOiWDGlofCQfAD9H8FSJ80
The Homa Files 