Archive for October 4th, 2012

It’s Thursday, so … guess what?

October 4, 2012

Yep, the BLS announced this weeks initial unemployment claims, and you know what?

They revised last week’s headline number up.

Now we’re up to 81 out of 82 weeks — and, at least 22 election season weeks in a row — that the BLS’s “headline number” has under-reported the number of initial unemployment claims … and cast the jobs situation as brighter than it really is.

Based on Thursday’s BLS report, the number for the week ending Sept. 15 was revised upward from 359,000 to 363,000.

In itself, the 4,000 isn’t a big deal.

But, in context it is

Again, I ask: statistical bias or political bias?

I’m now starting to conclude the latter.

The BLS has plenty of statisticians on payroll … and this is an elementary stats problem

* * * * * *

Let’s try a new way of reporting … here’s a picture.

image

Note that the preliminary estimate (the blue line) is ALWAYS low … by a couple of thousand.

Hint to BLS: just add 2k or 3k … or .8% to your prelim forecast !

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Posted in BLS, Employment - Jobs, Statistical Bias, Unemployment | 8 Comments »

NOT HIRING: Job growth not likely according to latest ADP forecast

October 4, 2012

Punch line: Ahead of the government’s official monthly job report, ADP forecasts a slowdown in job growth.

Macroeconomic Advisers went on to predict that the unemployment rate would likely still be above 8% a year from now.

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Excerpted from CNN Money’s, “Private sector hiring slowed in September”

Now hiring - image by flickr user Truthout dot org

Private employers added 162,000 jobs in the month … which marks a slowdown from August, when ADP said private employers added 189,000 jobs.

“While this number today is above consensus, it’s hardly a strong number,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers. “It’s only barely above the pace that would push the national unemployment rate down.”

The unemployment rate stood at 8.1% in August, and economists surveyed by CNNMoney predict it remained there in September.

Given weak economic forecasts for the foreseeable future, Prakken said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the unemployment rate still above 8% a year from now.

The ADP report is monitored closely since it comes just days before the government’s official monthly job report, due Friday. But the ADP figures are often not a great predictor of what the Labor Department will report.

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Posted in ADP, empl, Employment - Jobs, Unemployment | Leave a Comment »

Spanked! … Here’s why.

October 4, 2012

It was was fun watching the MSNBC post-debate show last nite.  No tingle up Chris Matthews’ leg.

CNN ran a “scientific poll” of debate watchers … Wolf Blitzer squirmed to rationalize the 67 to 25 Romney win.  Their panel’s  best excuse: “Must have over-sampled Republicans.”

Hmmm.

Suddenly over-sampling matters.

Both CNN and MSNBC were asking: “Why didn’t Obama bring his “A” game tonite?”

First, I think he did … but, for the sake of argument,  I’ll give the benefit of the doubt.

Still, I think pundits are missing the likely “why?”

My take: 3 things took Obama off the game his loyalists expected:

1. Benghazigate … while the topic wasn’t on the docket, I gotta believe that –- behind the scenes – that’s using up a lot of Obama’s energy.  Foreign policy in flames, caught lying, forced to play down nailing Bin Laden, CNN broke media ranks and started reporting the cover-up.  That’s gotta be taking a toll

2 Hampton speech … the Tuesday release of the factually flawed and racially divisive speech Obama gave in 2007 took “47%” off the table … if he had hit Romney with that, it would have opened the floodgates for a stream of dot points re: how Obama has been dividing the country … I bet Romney regrets that Obama didn’t bring it up.

3. $17,000 deduction cap … great play by Team Romney on Tuesday … sent Team Obama scrambling, diffused the “get specific” line, and left Obama with a weak argument: “Create jobs by taxing the rich”.

Collectively, I think that – behind the scenes – Obama was more focused on these 3 “distractions” than on the debate … and it showed.

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For the record, I think Obama did bring his A game … he was holding a bad hand, being forced to defend his record … he wasn’t going head-to-head with the ladies of the View … and he had to go without his crutch …

As Bill Maher tweeted: “Maybe the guy does need a teleprompter”.

Michael Moore tweeted: ““This is what happens when u pick John Kerry as your debate coach.”

Bottom line: The Emperor just wasn’t wearing any threads…

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Posted in 2012 Campaign | 1 Comment »

What’s your brand worth? … Ask Interbrand.

October 4, 2012

Punch line: Interbrand released its 13th annual Best Global Brands Report, giving Coca-Cola the top bid.

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Excerpted from the New York Times, “List of Global Brands Keeps Coke on Top, and Apple Jumps Up.”

02adco-popup

Interbrand’s 13th annual Best Global Brands report addresses the value of powerful brands — and the problems of brands whose value is diminishing. 

The report ranks what it deems the 100 most valuable brands on criteria that include:

  • Financial performance
  • The role the brand plays in influencing the choices made by consumers
  • The brand’s ability to help its parent’s earnings

Many of the ranked brands are known for dedicating time and corporate treasure to continually, if not continuously, trying to improve the results of their advertising.

Case in point is the brand that ranked No. 1 on the list for the 13th consecutive year, Coca-Cola. Interbrand estimated its brand value at $77.8 billion, up 8 percent from the 2011 report.

Although nothing lasts forever, the company will strive to keep the Coke brand relevant through innovations in how it engages with consumers.

For instance Facebook Coca-Cola has more likes, 51.98 million, than any other brand.

“A lot of staying relevant is not being afraid to take risks or do different things,” Mr. Tripodi, of Coca-Cola said. “It’s less about what you sell and more about what you stand for as a brand and company.

Eight of the remaining top nine brands changed ranks from last year, including Apple, which rose to No. 2 from No. 8, and Samsung, which rose to No. 9 from No. 17. 

Also, two brands dropped out of the top 10: Disney, which fell to No. 13 from No. 9 last year, and Hewlett-Packard, which fell to No. 15 from No. 10.

The list is dominated by technology companies.

Of the top 10 brands, five are in technology: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Intel and Samsung.  Another prominent technology company,

Facebook, entered the list for the first time, at No. 69. Facebook was among six new entrants; the others are Pampers (34), Prada (84), Kia (87), Ralph Lauren (91) and MasterCard (94).

Several brands that were ranked lower on the 2012 list compared with last year’s have been suffering setbacks.

Among them are BlackBerry, which tumbled to 93 from 56; Goldman Sachs, which declined to 48 from 38; and Nokia, which dropped to 19 from 14.

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Posted in Interbrand - Brand Valuation, Mktg - Brand Valuation, Mktg - Brands | Leave a Comment »

Is nothing sacred? … Time Inc.’s Twitter background is, well, an ad.

October 4, 2012

Punch line: As part of its progressive digital ad unit, Time Inc. has — for the first time  — leased the wallpaper of one its twitter properties as ad space.

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Excerpted from Ad Age, “Time Inc. Magazine Finds Another Next-Gen Ad Opportunity: Its Twitter Wallpaper”

People Style Watch Twitter Page

Time Inc. recently built a new digital ad unit as part of its effort to deliver “the next generation of advertising solutions,” but one of the publisher’s titles seems to have found some ad inventory just waiting for the taking: the wallpaper on its Twitter profile page.

People StyleWatch, the fashion and shopping spinoff of People magazine, this week turned the background of its Twitter page into an ad for Jergens Daily Moisture. Media brands on Twitter typically use that area to promote themselves or nothing at all.

Twitter said its users are free to turn their profile pages into ad venues.

“The space is the user’s to customize, and we encourage them to be clear if they are promoting something there, for money or other consideration,” a spokesman said in an email.

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